1st Inning – WOOF…that was not an enjoyable experience, at least game two was a close game, games three and four weren’t even close. The last two games it never felt like the Red Sox had a chance. I guess that’s what happens when you give up 5 runs in the first three innings of both games and your offense couldn’t hit a…well they can’t hit that’s the long and short of it.
The Lester game definitely came as the biggest shock. No one thought the Sox would lose that game at home after the way he’s pitched so far this post season. Lester has been prone to blowing up ever now and then but it wasn’t so much Lester’s fault as it was the Rays being locked in. Right now no matter who’s on the mound it feels like Longoria could go yard on any pitch. That’s the kind of dominant feeling I used to have about Papi.
In game one the Rays were the ones that looked lost at the plate and couldn’t pick up base runners but as soon as Longoria went deep in game two the dynamic of the series changed completely.
The Sox bats went limp and so did the arms of the pitching staff while BJ Upton, Longoria, and Carlos Pena turned into Murderer’s Row. On the one hand it feels like it’s over but on the other I really can’t resign myself to count them out until the final out is made. I’m not jumping off the bridge yet.
2nd Inning – Sox pitching has been woeful with the exception of Dice-K. Who would have thought Dice-K would be the best pitcher for the Sox in this series. The most telling stat for the pitchers…33 runs in the last three games. That’s not going to get it done, even if they Sox were hitting 33 runs in three games is asking a lot from your offense.
The hitters just got enough to get the win in game one thanks to an unreal performance from Dice-K and despite the loss they bailed out Beckett in game two. In game three Lester just didn’t have it, which really isn’t that big of a deal if you can tie the series up at 2-2 with a win in game four but Wake is hit or miss and last night he was miss, now all of a sudden your in a big 3-1 hole.
True they’ve come back from down 3-1 in both of their World Series wins but if the Sox pitchers can’t keep the Rays in the ballpark we’ll be mourning the 2008 Red Sox before the week is over.
3rd Inning – Sox batters…I don’t know which has been more difficult to watch, the pitchers or the non-existent offense. The most telling stat for the offense…the leadoff spot is 0-25 in this series. You’re not going to win a lot of games when the guys that are supposed to set the table for the heart of the order can’t get on base.
I was wrong about Jacoby Ellsbury, at least as far as the ALCS has gone. He was great in against the Angels but he has looked miz against the Rays, so bad he was replaced by Coco in the field and JD Drew in the leadoff spot. Jacoby needs to turn back into Playoff Jacoby in a hurry because he’s the spark.
If he gets on base you’ve got Pedroia, Papi and Youk hitting with a man on. That changes the complexion of the game. The Rays can’t pitch to those guys the same way with a man on and no one out, especially when it’s Ellsbury who is always a threat to steal.
He’s not the only one to blame though. Ortiz has just been awful, maybe he’s hurt, maybe his timing is off, or maybe they are just pitching more aggressively to him. I don’t know what it is but he needs to find his stroke because while Ellsbury is the spark the offense flows through Big Papi. If Papi gets it going the other players are going to react. If Papi hits a long ball in game five watch how things change in the Red Sox dugout.
If the Red Sox want to win this series they need to start stringing together some hits. They haven’t been able to do that therefore they aren’t putting any pressure on the Rays pitchers. When you don’t work the count and get on base with less than two outs you don’t back the pitchers into a corner.
Andy Sonnanstine can make a mistake to Kevin Cash and give up a home run when he’s got a five run lead and he’s not pitching with runners on and an escalating pitch count. The Red Sox have to make the Ray pitchers uncomfortable. Everyone’s been talking about pitchers making Manny uncomfortable in the NLCS, well in the ALCS the hitters have to make the pitchers uncomfortable by forcing them into jams and making them throw a lot of pitches.
4th Inning – The Rays batters have really been the story of the ALCS. They looked overmatched in game one but boy did they turn that around in a hurry. After being shutout in game one Evan Longoria entered the Konami code and it’s been like he’s playing wiffle ball with one of those mongo bats ever since. The guy is on fire.
Longoria is 5-for-17 with seven runs scored, six RBI, two doubles, three home runs, two walks and four strikeouts.
He’s also slugging at a .941 clip and two of his four strikeouts came in game one. If I ever had any doubts about Evan Longoria I’m sorry. You know a guy is hot when you feel like every pitch that gets thrown to him is going to end up bouncing across the Mass Pike.
Oh yeah AND IT DOESN’T EVEN LOOK LIKE HE SWINGS. Seriously, he rolls his wrists and next thing you know Chip Caray gets to do another home run call.
Not that we don’t have a good first basemen in Youk, I love Youk and if I had to pitch between the two I’d pick Youk but I really wish we could have found more at bats for Carlos Pena. Pena is another guy who is just locked in for the Rays. Pena is 5-for-15 with six runs scored, four RBI, four walks, two homers and only three strikeouts. He also has a stolen base.
You know things are not going well when Carlos Pena steals a base. Although he is a Whirlway guy so he’s got to have some wheels.
The other guy that scares all of Red Sox nation is BJ Upton. He’s like Pena and Longoria where every time he swings I feel like I’m going to throw up. The Rays just look so much better in every aspect of their at bats.
They look like they have better bat speed, a better feel for the strike zone and they are really driving the ball. Every time some one gets on base in front of these guys it’s like an automatic run because of how well they are stroking the ball.
Continuing with the stat trend…Upton is 5-for-16 with five runs scored, six RBI, two homers, three walks and five strikeouts. Plus he’s playing stellar defense in centerfield. Compare those three with heart of the Red Sox order and it’s no wonder the Rays are leading 3-1.
Oh yeah and Carl Crawford woke up in game four, going 5-for-5, that’s not a good sign for the Red Sox.
5th Inning – The Rays pitching staff has easily out dueled the Sox. Even though Dice-K won game one it’s not like it wasn’t close. James Shields still held the Sox to just two runs, which he scattered over seven and a third.
The only pitcher the Red Sox have been able to touch is Scott Kazmir, who luckily is starting game five, which could give the Sox the break they need to get back into this series.
Unfortunately the way Josh Beckett has pitched and the way the Rays bullpen has locked down the Red Sox I’m not sure if we’ll get a chance to see what Jon Lester could do in a game seven.
Here’s why…if the Red Sox can win game five they’d see James Shields in game six and Matt Garza in game seven.
Shields – (0-1) – 7.1 innings – 6 hits – 2 runs – 2 ER – 2 BB – 6 K – 2.45 ERA
Garza - (1-0) – 6 innings – 6 hits – 1 run – 1 ER – 3 BB – 5 K – 1.50 ERA
Not promising for the Sox who would counter with Beckett and Lester.
Beckett – (0-0) – 4.1 innings – 9 hits – 8 runs – 8 ER – 1 BB – 5 K – 16.62 ERA
Lester – (0-1) – 5.2 innings – 8 hits – 5 runs – 4 ER – 2 BB – 7 K – 6.35 ERA
I guess I can understand why Joe Maddon would move Kazmir to get those matchups in potential games six and seven but like I said before I think the Lester game was an aberration, so I don’t agree with that move if that’s the logic. You can never give the Red Sox any room to breathe after all they’ve shown what they can do in these situations.
Unfortunately the Rays bullpen has also been much better than the Red Sox. The Sox pen has shown some bright spots but overall I think the Rays have been much, much better out of the bullpen.
6th Inning – The loss of Mike Lowell is really showing in the ALCS. Compare his numbers last year to Mark Kotsay’s numbers this year.
Lowell – 9-for-27 – 3 runs – 8 RBI – 1 HR – 2 2B – 2 BB – 3K - .333 BA - .375 OBP
Kotsay – 4-for-17 – 0 runs – 0 RBI – 0 HR – 2 2B – 0 BB – 2K - .235 BA - .235 OBP
It’s not that I don’t like Mark Kotsay. I think he’s a good player, he’s definitely been a good utility guy during this playoff run and the Sox have shown that you need a guy like that to win a World Series (see Roberts, Dave and Hinske, Eric) but Lowell clearly brings a lot more to the table offensively.
Youk makes the transition to third pretty seamlessly and he’s shown that with two very heads up plays catching guys rounding bases and Kotsay has been good at first but again Youk and Lowell at the corners gives you two gold glovers instead of one sort of out of position and the other playing something like his 10th game at first.
If the Red Sox lose this series the loss of Lowell will definitely be one of the major contributing factors. There’s no telling how the addition of Lowell’s bat effects this lineup, plus he’s played in a lot of playoff games.
7th Inning – Why this is like last year (why they’ll come back) – They have the best manager in baseball for this situation because he’s been there twice before. They have to approach it like they have in the past, one game at a time. They have a great chance to win game 5 because you have Dice-K, the guy that has looked the best starting and Scott Kazmir, the guy who has looked the worst for the Rays is starting game five.
I’m not sure why the Rays wouldn’t start James Shields. He looked good against he Sox, he gave up a couple runs early but Dice-K was better that night. Wouldn’t James Shield give you the best chance to send the team to their first ever World Series? Why would you send out the pitcher who looked the worst when all the other guys looked solid?
These are things that the Sox thrive on. They aren’t playing well right now but we’ve seen it before, what can happen when you give the Red Sox extra lives. Even though the scores looked a little bit different it feels a lot like last years ALCS where the Red Sox weren’t hitting and weren’t pitching.
In 2007 the Red Sox hitters looked lost at the plate in games two through four. They weren’t having good at bats and they weren’t getting good performances out of their clutch players. This year has been very similar, Jacoby Ellsbury is 0 for the series and playing like Coco last year, Big Papi is not hitting, Tek isn’t hitting and they’re only getting production out of a few guys at the plate and the same goes for the pitching staff.
Last year’s ALCS the bats woke up in the final three games and the pitching staff got their shit together winning 7-1, 12-2 and 11-2 with Beckett, Schilling and Dice-K pitching. Looking at that you have to figure that this is a winnable series because you have a similar pitching line up going forward.
Dice-K is the constant. He won game seven by holding the Indians to just two runs while Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youk got the offense going. Fast forward to 2008 and you’ve got Dice-K coming off a great performance on the road in game one and the hitters get a chance to face the pitcher that they had the most success against in this series.
We know now that Beckett is not the Beckett of last postseason but if the Sox offense can give him some early help I have full confidence in his ability to gut out a similar performance to the one Schilling put up last year. I’m not asking him to pitch six shutout innings but if the bats get going all he has to do is keep it close. That’s really all I ask is that they make a game of it.
That would leave Lester as your game seven starter and as I mentioned before he’s taken the place of Josh Beckett this postseason. I don’t think game three was indicative of what you’re going to get from Lester if the series goes to game seven. If that’s the case I have all the confidence in the world that Lester can step up and shut down the Rays like he did to the Angels in game four.
Unfortunately all this hinges on the Red Sox offense waking up, which doesn’t look promising. I do think the Red Sox pitching can keep games close but if the offense continues its impotence then this series is going to be over before it gets back to Tampa. The Rays are going to score runs, if the Red Sox can’t keep pace the 2008 World Series is going to start at the Trop on October 22.
The Red Sox also need some one to wake everyone up, the players, the fans everyone, just like JD Drew did last year with his grand slam.
8th Inning – Why this isn’t like last year or why they won’t come back to win. Three big reasons…No Manny, no Mike Lowell and no ’07 Beckett. I will be the first to say that I love having Jason Bay. He has been great and you could not possibly ask for more from him. With that said success with Jason Bay in the lineup relies on different things then success with Manny in the lineup did.
Manny changes the way pitchers throw to Pedroia and Big Papi and while Bay can certainly go yard he’s not the hitter that Manny is/was…taking all of that into account though I’m still happy that we got Bay and even if the Sox lose this series it was the best move for the team. Plus there’s no telling how many more runs the Rays score with Manny in left, Bay’s defense is worlds better than Manny.
With no Lowell and no ’07 Beckett the team is missing two of the key pieces to their championship run in 2007 it wouldn’t be as hard to cover up one of those losses but both…that’s an up hill battle and it might be too steep of a climb for the 2008 Sox to summit.
9th Inning – If it is over there are some positives…Jason Bay has shown he’s ready for prime time, Jed Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson are for real and there is life after Manny.
Despite the evidence I still can’t bring myself to count them out until the final out is made…Sox in 7
As always all stats are courtesy of baseball-reference.com
Showing posts with label MLB Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB Playoffs. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Playoff Diaries Volume II
Well my playoff diary got a little side tracked due to my computer decided to get f’d once again. I used to compare my laptop to a hot shot starting pitcher that throws serious gas and my old desktop was like a crafty veteran, the Tim Wakefield of computers if you will.
Well I was wrong…way wrong. My laptop is more like Ryan Leaf, leading me to a 1-15 season after getting f’d twice in less than a yeah…way to work kid.
On to volume II of the diaries…
First inning – Why doesn’t anyone in Boston give Tito credit for the decisions he makes? Why do people continuously call weei and say that he’s messing up the rotation and he should have brought it Paul Byrd and what not? I know weei callers don’t represent the majority of fans but Christ on a crutch people he’s led the Sox to two World Series an AL East title and they are in the ALCS for the third time in his five years here.
He announced the ALCS rotation the other day and it’s a solid lineup.
Dice-k, Beckett, Lester, Tim Wakefield
What was the immediate reaction…how can he start Dice-k in game one…Lester has to pitch game one…on short rest.
Easy guy, it’s game one. It’s the general consensus that when you’re the road team in a playoff series you need to steal a game on the road. Realistically you want the Sox to go up 2-0 but I think everyone would be alright with the Sox returning to Boston with at 1-1.
One thing I'm really interested in seeing is how people react to the Tito vs Maddon matchup. Last year he out managed Eric Wedle who went on to win Manager of the Year. Not to take anything away from Joe Maddon, after taking the Rays from worst to first he deserves the award but Tito continues to get passed over when talking about the best managers. Like I said in Volume I he's not the best manager ever but he's the best manager for this team.
Second Inning - Dice-k has a history of pitching poorly with extensive rest and what would it do to his confidence if Tito says ‘hey Dice-K I know you went 18-3 and won a playoff game out in LA or Anaheim or wherever the hell it was but we’d rather pitch Lester and blow out his arm because he’s better than you and f up our chances to win.’ That’s were Tito is like and angel on our shoulders.
With a rotation of Dice-k, Beckett, Lester and Wake you give the first three guys pretty much normal rest plus you get Lester back at home, where he was 11-1 or something like that…yeah old Ryan Leaf the computer no internet when I wrote this and I’m far too lazy to look it up.
Also, Dice-k was better on the road and tends to lose it a little bit less when he’s on the road. We’re not talking about some stiff either, the guy went 18-3 for a reason. He’s a good pitcher and he has a good lineup hitting behind him. The playoffs are all about timely pitching, hitting and good defense. There is no reason to think that the Red Sox can’t win a game on the road with Dice-K starting.
My main reason for totally agreeing with this choice hinges on Dice-k’s command of the strike zone. Evan Longoria said yesterday that Dice-K walks a lot of guys. If Dice-k comes out and attacks the strike zone and goes after the hitters he can go at least six innings and the Sox will be in a good position to steal game one.
That might seem like I’m expecting a lot out of Dice-K but I think he’s perfectly capable of it and Jason Varitek is way smarter than I am at game planning for a pitcher so really it just comes down to execution. The Rays are going to be patient at the plate that is for sure, so if Dice-K comes out throwing strikes he can get ahead of hitters and do some damage.
It seemed like Josh Beckett was a bit of a victim of that circumstance in the ALDS. The Angles have been known for their aggressive play, their fast and loose, both on the bases and at the plate at times. Buck Martinez and Chip Caray talked at length about how the Angels were going to ‘force the issue’ which they did. That also caused them to run into a couple outs, including the botched squeeze but that might have cost them the series.
The Angels hitters also swung at a bunch of pitches out of the zone in the first two games, in game three with Beckett on the mount they got a little bit more patient and combined with Beckett’s control issues they worked walks and pounced on a mistake pitch to help them take game three.
Third Inning – Game two sends Beckett to the mound and it’s going to be a different Beckett then what we saw in the ALDS. It’s not going to be the same Beckett we saw last season but it’s going to be a better Beckett then the guy that was masquerading as Josh Beckett in game three of the DS. To be honest I don’t think he pitched as bad as people are making it out to be. He gave up two homers and his lineup didn’t help him out very much. Take away Playoff Jacoby’s three run blooper and the Sox are never in that game. Beckett needs to be better than that but so do the hitters.
Beckett’s playoff history suggests that he’s going to pitch better and I think we’re going to see a Beckett closer to what we’ve seen in the past now that he’s gotten a chance to shake off some of the rust.
Beckett’s struggles in game three came from his inability to find the strike zone with his fastball. It looked like he got squeezed a little bit but so did the Angels pitchers, so that’s no excuse. I don’t think it had anything to do with his health thought. If his body wasn’t right he probably would have looked a lot worse. He was missing but he was around the strike zone. You could see that he didn’t have confidence in all his pitches as he kept shaking off Tek.
Now Beckett is back into a routine and pitching for a chance to help his team get to the World Series and overall he’s been pretty good when that’s the situation. And like I said I think he feel victim to the Angels changing their strategy at the plate after their aggressiveness got them into some trouble both at the plate and on the bases (see Guerrero, Vlad).
Mound visit - I’m watching the Phillies-Dodgers game and Manny just launched a double off the wall in center…remember how Dodger fans were warning us about JD Drew and how he would drive us nuts, that he was soft and that we wouldn’t like him? Consider it fan courtesy but don’t be shocked when the other shoe drops with old Man-Ram. It probably won’t happen this post season but if he gets signed ooooh boy its coming.
Fourth Inning – See I told you Jon Lester is F’ing harsh. Lester has definitely filled in for the MIA Josh Beckett, as I pointed out in Volume I of these diaries Lester was starting to look like Beckett did in 2003 and he showed that again in game four. Unfortunately the bullpen nearly wasted his great start but a Jeff Suppan like base running error, Jason Bay and Jeddy Ballgame pulled it out.
Lester has been incredible this post season, which is why I’m glad he’s lined up to pitch game three. Mainly because it gives him normal rest and as Tito has said rest at this point is critical. That also means if the series goes to a game seven you have your best pitcher on the mound and it’s the first time he’s had to go on short rest so even with fewer days to recover he’ll be certainly be able to pitch effectively.
Plus he seems like the kind of guy that would respond favorably to the pressure of a road game seven. I mean it can’t be that much of a pressure situation for him, the guy beat cancer.
Honesty I don’t have much to say about Lester he’s getting it done that’s all I can really ask for out of the guy.
Fifth Inning – Game four will bring us Timmy…and the lords of the underworld…If the situation is anything different than 3-0 get ready to hear a lot of ‘why aren’t they pitching Paul Byrd’, thankfully we won’t hear any ‘Lester should pitch on three days rest’ like we did last year with Josh Beckett. I swear people wanted him to pitch games 4, 5, 6, and 7 last year.
Who pitched game seven of the ALCS last year? Dice-k, see it’s going to be alright. Tito is a good manager.
Back to Wakefield – It’s pretty much a crap shoot with Wake but I will say this…Wakefield is the definition of a crafty veteran, well I guess he’s not that crafty he only throws three pitches but he’s certainly a veteran.
He’s pitched in 17 postseason games, including 10 starts with a 5-6 record. His numbers aren’t lights out but you don’t expect Wake to be lights out you just need him to keep it close and possibly just eat up innings, which he can do.
In 17 postseason games he has a 6.36 ERA but what’s really interesting about Wake are his numbers in the league championship series’.
Wake has appeared in nine LCS games in four different seasons (He’s been pitching in the playoffs for so long he even pitched in the NLCS for the Pirates). Wakefield is 5-2 with a 4.50 ERA, two complete games, 30 Ks and 16 walks. Kind of surprising to see that his numbers are that good in that many appearances but once again Tito knows what he’s doing.
Mound Visit - I never ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever thought I’d agree with Tim McCarver but he’s right Manny is a douche.
Sixth Inning – All of this is not to say that the Red Sox hitters are going to be hitting off a tee. The Rays are certainly more than legit. They won the AL East, a feat even our mighty Red Sox have only accomplished once this decade.
They also have between 75 and 90 percent of the country rooting for them. They usually large Red Sox Nation population in western Florida is going to be a lot smaller at the Trop over the next two weeks.
Might we see instant replay in this series? Considering the fact that they are playing games in a mickey mouse stadium with 18 different levels of catwalks, yeah we probably will.
The key guys that the Sox pitchers need to shut down…err…keep in check are Evan Longoria (who’s slugging like it’s cool), Mass native and fellow Whirlaway guy Carlos Pena (I wish we could have found some more at bats for him) and Carl Crawford. Crawford is a guy that makes me nervous because he can make a play that sparks a team like Jacoby.
Looking at the Rays numbers they’re aren’t a lot of players that really jump out at you stats wise other than Longoria and Pena but they are a pretty complete team. Those two guys had 31 and 27 homers respectively. They had two guys with 20 stolen bases and Crawford had 44 and only played in 109 games.
They aren’t a crazy moneyball team as far as getting on base goes and only Pena drove in over 100 runs (102) but they sure as hell get it done. 97 wins does a lot of the talking for the Rays. Including Pena they had six guys with over 50 RBI and six guys that scored 100 runs they can do it all. They can hit the three run bomb or manufacture a run, and with their pitching they can win a game only scoring a couple of runs.
Scott Kazmir has long been known as a Red Sox killer but the Red Sox have actually done all right against the Rays first three starters – Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza. The guy that caused them the most trouble, especially late in the season when he out dueled Josh Beckett, is Andy Sonnanstine.
Side note about Sonnanstine, he’s an alumnus of the NECBL, The New England College Baseball League where they actually let me talk into a microphone and call the plays for the Lowell All Americans. Sonnanstine was the 03 most improved player as a member of the Sanford Mainers…way to work ked.
Suddenly that game four is looking more and more interesting. Wake, who’s been big in LCS play and the former Mainer that went 13-9, second most wins on the team, throwing nearly 200 innings with a 4.38 ERA.
The Rays pitching staff is a lot like their hitters no one guy that really stands out but they all get it done. What’s more worrisome than their starters is their bullpen, which after Masterson and Okie struggled in the DS, gets the advantage.
I’ll be a lot more nervous with Grant Balfour on the mound than I was with K-Rod.
Seventh Inning – The experience factor – I heard this stat on Mike and Mike this morning. Only three Rays hitters have more post season hits than Josh Beckett. The Sox have their share of playoff new comers too but they also have a nucleus that has seen plenty of playoff ups and downs…
Seventh Inning stretch– I’m watching the new episode of South Park and there is a commercial for Shaun White snowboading…holy shit on a shingle…I can’t wait to buy that game.
Eighth Inning – Losing Mike Lowell hurts. We might try to act like it doesn’t because Yook can play third but it hurts when you consider that Mark Kotsay will most likely be playing first. Not that I don’t like Kotsay, he’s a solid player and a starter on most teams but I’d rather have Yook at first with Lowell at third and Kotsay your utility guy like Hinske or Dave Roberts.
Ninth Inning - Keys to the game – Dice-K needs to get ahead of the hitters by throwing strikes. Pedroia and Big Papi need to get it going offensively and take advantage of Jacoby getting on base…assuming that he continually plays like Playoff Jacoby and the Sox need to play good defense. The Rays are a team that can jump on you if you give them extra outs, especially with their speed and players that can drive the ball like Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria.
Ok game time…let’s go Sox
Well I was wrong…way wrong. My laptop is more like Ryan Leaf, leading me to a 1-15 season after getting f’d twice in less than a yeah…way to work kid.
On to volume II of the diaries…
First inning – Why doesn’t anyone in Boston give Tito credit for the decisions he makes? Why do people continuously call weei and say that he’s messing up the rotation and he should have brought it Paul Byrd and what not? I know weei callers don’t represent the majority of fans but Christ on a crutch people he’s led the Sox to two World Series an AL East title and they are in the ALCS for the third time in his five years here.
He announced the ALCS rotation the other day and it’s a solid lineup.
Dice-k, Beckett, Lester, Tim Wakefield
What was the immediate reaction…how can he start Dice-k in game one…Lester has to pitch game one…on short rest.
Easy guy, it’s game one. It’s the general consensus that when you’re the road team in a playoff series you need to steal a game on the road. Realistically you want the Sox to go up 2-0 but I think everyone would be alright with the Sox returning to Boston with at 1-1.
One thing I'm really interested in seeing is how people react to the Tito vs Maddon matchup. Last year he out managed Eric Wedle who went on to win Manager of the Year. Not to take anything away from Joe Maddon, after taking the Rays from worst to first he deserves the award but Tito continues to get passed over when talking about the best managers. Like I said in Volume I he's not the best manager ever but he's the best manager for this team.
Second Inning - Dice-k has a history of pitching poorly with extensive rest and what would it do to his confidence if Tito says ‘hey Dice-K I know you went 18-3 and won a playoff game out in LA or Anaheim or wherever the hell it was but we’d rather pitch Lester and blow out his arm because he’s better than you and f up our chances to win.’ That’s were Tito is like and angel on our shoulders.
With a rotation of Dice-k, Beckett, Lester and Wake you give the first three guys pretty much normal rest plus you get Lester back at home, where he was 11-1 or something like that…yeah old Ryan Leaf the computer no internet when I wrote this and I’m far too lazy to look it up.
Also, Dice-k was better on the road and tends to lose it a little bit less when he’s on the road. We’re not talking about some stiff either, the guy went 18-3 for a reason. He’s a good pitcher and he has a good lineup hitting behind him. The playoffs are all about timely pitching, hitting and good defense. There is no reason to think that the Red Sox can’t win a game on the road with Dice-K starting.
My main reason for totally agreeing with this choice hinges on Dice-k’s command of the strike zone. Evan Longoria said yesterday that Dice-K walks a lot of guys. If Dice-k comes out and attacks the strike zone and goes after the hitters he can go at least six innings and the Sox will be in a good position to steal game one.
That might seem like I’m expecting a lot out of Dice-K but I think he’s perfectly capable of it and Jason Varitek is way smarter than I am at game planning for a pitcher so really it just comes down to execution. The Rays are going to be patient at the plate that is for sure, so if Dice-K comes out throwing strikes he can get ahead of hitters and do some damage.
It seemed like Josh Beckett was a bit of a victim of that circumstance in the ALDS. The Angles have been known for their aggressive play, their fast and loose, both on the bases and at the plate at times. Buck Martinez and Chip Caray talked at length about how the Angels were going to ‘force the issue’ which they did. That also caused them to run into a couple outs, including the botched squeeze but that might have cost them the series.
The Angels hitters also swung at a bunch of pitches out of the zone in the first two games, in game three with Beckett on the mount they got a little bit more patient and combined with Beckett’s control issues they worked walks and pounced on a mistake pitch to help them take game three.
Third Inning – Game two sends Beckett to the mound and it’s going to be a different Beckett then what we saw in the ALDS. It’s not going to be the same Beckett we saw last season but it’s going to be a better Beckett then the guy that was masquerading as Josh Beckett in game three of the DS. To be honest I don’t think he pitched as bad as people are making it out to be. He gave up two homers and his lineup didn’t help him out very much. Take away Playoff Jacoby’s three run blooper and the Sox are never in that game. Beckett needs to be better than that but so do the hitters.
Beckett’s playoff history suggests that he’s going to pitch better and I think we’re going to see a Beckett closer to what we’ve seen in the past now that he’s gotten a chance to shake off some of the rust.
Beckett’s struggles in game three came from his inability to find the strike zone with his fastball. It looked like he got squeezed a little bit but so did the Angels pitchers, so that’s no excuse. I don’t think it had anything to do with his health thought. If his body wasn’t right he probably would have looked a lot worse. He was missing but he was around the strike zone. You could see that he didn’t have confidence in all his pitches as he kept shaking off Tek.
Now Beckett is back into a routine and pitching for a chance to help his team get to the World Series and overall he’s been pretty good when that’s the situation. And like I said I think he feel victim to the Angels changing their strategy at the plate after their aggressiveness got them into some trouble both at the plate and on the bases (see Guerrero, Vlad).
Mound visit - I’m watching the Phillies-Dodgers game and Manny just launched a double off the wall in center…remember how Dodger fans were warning us about JD Drew and how he would drive us nuts, that he was soft and that we wouldn’t like him? Consider it fan courtesy but don’t be shocked when the other shoe drops with old Man-Ram. It probably won’t happen this post season but if he gets signed ooooh boy its coming.
Fourth Inning – See I told you Jon Lester is F’ing harsh. Lester has definitely filled in for the MIA Josh Beckett, as I pointed out in Volume I of these diaries Lester was starting to look like Beckett did in 2003 and he showed that again in game four. Unfortunately the bullpen nearly wasted his great start but a Jeff Suppan like base running error, Jason Bay and Jeddy Ballgame pulled it out.
Lester has been incredible this post season, which is why I’m glad he’s lined up to pitch game three. Mainly because it gives him normal rest and as Tito has said rest at this point is critical. That also means if the series goes to a game seven you have your best pitcher on the mound and it’s the first time he’s had to go on short rest so even with fewer days to recover he’ll be certainly be able to pitch effectively.
Plus he seems like the kind of guy that would respond favorably to the pressure of a road game seven. I mean it can’t be that much of a pressure situation for him, the guy beat cancer.
Honesty I don’t have much to say about Lester he’s getting it done that’s all I can really ask for out of the guy.
Fifth Inning – Game four will bring us Timmy…and the lords of the underworld…If the situation is anything different than 3-0 get ready to hear a lot of ‘why aren’t they pitching Paul Byrd’, thankfully we won’t hear any ‘Lester should pitch on three days rest’ like we did last year with Josh Beckett. I swear people wanted him to pitch games 4, 5, 6, and 7 last year.
Who pitched game seven of the ALCS last year? Dice-k, see it’s going to be alright. Tito is a good manager.
Back to Wakefield – It’s pretty much a crap shoot with Wake but I will say this…Wakefield is the definition of a crafty veteran, well I guess he’s not that crafty he only throws three pitches but he’s certainly a veteran.
He’s pitched in 17 postseason games, including 10 starts with a 5-6 record. His numbers aren’t lights out but you don’t expect Wake to be lights out you just need him to keep it close and possibly just eat up innings, which he can do.
In 17 postseason games he has a 6.36 ERA but what’s really interesting about Wake are his numbers in the league championship series’.
Wake has appeared in nine LCS games in four different seasons (He’s been pitching in the playoffs for so long he even pitched in the NLCS for the Pirates). Wakefield is 5-2 with a 4.50 ERA, two complete games, 30 Ks and 16 walks. Kind of surprising to see that his numbers are that good in that many appearances but once again Tito knows what he’s doing.
Mound Visit - I never ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever thought I’d agree with Tim McCarver but he’s right Manny is a douche.
Sixth Inning – All of this is not to say that the Red Sox hitters are going to be hitting off a tee. The Rays are certainly more than legit. They won the AL East, a feat even our mighty Red Sox have only accomplished once this decade.
They also have between 75 and 90 percent of the country rooting for them. They usually large Red Sox Nation population in western Florida is going to be a lot smaller at the Trop over the next two weeks.
Might we see instant replay in this series? Considering the fact that they are playing games in a mickey mouse stadium with 18 different levels of catwalks, yeah we probably will.
The key guys that the Sox pitchers need to shut down…err…keep in check are Evan Longoria (who’s slugging like it’s cool), Mass native and fellow Whirlaway guy Carlos Pena (I wish we could have found some more at bats for him) and Carl Crawford. Crawford is a guy that makes me nervous because he can make a play that sparks a team like Jacoby.
Looking at the Rays numbers they’re aren’t a lot of players that really jump out at you stats wise other than Longoria and Pena but they are a pretty complete team. Those two guys had 31 and 27 homers respectively. They had two guys with 20 stolen bases and Crawford had 44 and only played in 109 games.
They aren’t a crazy moneyball team as far as getting on base goes and only Pena drove in over 100 runs (102) but they sure as hell get it done. 97 wins does a lot of the talking for the Rays. Including Pena they had six guys with over 50 RBI and six guys that scored 100 runs they can do it all. They can hit the three run bomb or manufacture a run, and with their pitching they can win a game only scoring a couple of runs.
Scott Kazmir has long been known as a Red Sox killer but the Red Sox have actually done all right against the Rays first three starters – Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza. The guy that caused them the most trouble, especially late in the season when he out dueled Josh Beckett, is Andy Sonnanstine.
Side note about Sonnanstine, he’s an alumnus of the NECBL, The New England College Baseball League where they actually let me talk into a microphone and call the plays for the Lowell All Americans. Sonnanstine was the 03 most improved player as a member of the Sanford Mainers…way to work ked.
Suddenly that game four is looking more and more interesting. Wake, who’s been big in LCS play and the former Mainer that went 13-9, second most wins on the team, throwing nearly 200 innings with a 4.38 ERA.
The Rays pitching staff is a lot like their hitters no one guy that really stands out but they all get it done. What’s more worrisome than their starters is their bullpen, which after Masterson and Okie struggled in the DS, gets the advantage.
I’ll be a lot more nervous with Grant Balfour on the mound than I was with K-Rod.
Seventh Inning – The experience factor – I heard this stat on Mike and Mike this morning. Only three Rays hitters have more post season hits than Josh Beckett. The Sox have their share of playoff new comers too but they also have a nucleus that has seen plenty of playoff ups and downs…
Seventh Inning stretch– I’m watching the new episode of South Park and there is a commercial for Shaun White snowboading…holy shit on a shingle…I can’t wait to buy that game.
Eighth Inning – Losing Mike Lowell hurts. We might try to act like it doesn’t because Yook can play third but it hurts when you consider that Mark Kotsay will most likely be playing first. Not that I don’t like Kotsay, he’s a solid player and a starter on most teams but I’d rather have Yook at first with Lowell at third and Kotsay your utility guy like Hinske or Dave Roberts.
Ninth Inning - Keys to the game – Dice-K needs to get ahead of the hitters by throwing strikes. Pedroia and Big Papi need to get it going offensively and take advantage of Jacoby getting on base…assuming that he continually plays like Playoff Jacoby and the Sox need to play good defense. The Rays are a team that can jump on you if you give them extra outs, especially with their speed and players that can drive the ball like Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria.
Ok game time…let’s go Sox
Thursday, October 2, 2008
The Playoff Diaries Volume I
Welcome to the playoff diaries…
Nine innings of thoughts on the Sox playoffs
1st inning – Jon Lester is F’n harsh. Even if Josh Beckett isn’t 100% of Josh Beckett I’m suddenly not as concerned now after Lester kicked down the door to the 2008 ALDS.
Here’s what I mean by that. 2008 is Lester’s third season in the majors and the first season he started more than 15 games, obviously his development was stalled by cancer (which only makes what he’s done more remarkable), but he went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 33 starts. Those numbers look kind of familiar…
In fact they are almost eerily similar to the numbers Josh Beckett put up in 2003. When oh-by-the-way the Marlins won the World Series. By comparison 200 was Beckett’s third season in majors and only the second season in which he started more than 4 games (He started 4 in ’01 then 21 and 23 in ’02 and ’03). In 2003 Josh Beckett went 9-8 with 3.04 ERA 152 Ks, and a 1.32 WHIP.
In the playoffs he went 2-2 but appeared in six games including the clincher at Yankee stadium, in which he pitched on three days rest and officially became Captain Kick Ass.
Last year Lester made three postseason appearances, starting and winning the final game of the World Series.
Now realistically the Red Sox aren’t going to win the World Series without Beckett pitching well but looking at the numbers I’d say Lester is certainly a guy that they can ride to multiple wins much like the Marlins rode Josh Beckett in 2003.
What’s even more encouraging is the fact that Beckett’s F-you-there’s-no-way-you’re-hitting-this-pitch-ness has trickled down to Lester. He has definitely progressed from a guy that couldn’t find the strike zone to a budding ace. I have a feeling this postseason is going to be the time that he shows everyone he is a go to guy too.
Last night proved that having Jon Lester as your plan B number one starter isn’t such a bad thing. Now if Beckett isn’t good to go by game three things will be a little different but all in all taking game one on the road with Dice-K and Beckett set to start the next two games, you’re in pretty good shape.
2nd inning – You know how the Tiger Woods video game had that ‘Sunday Tiger’ character that was a 99 in everything and he was unreal, even more so than the regular Tiger. You would hit an unreal second shot on a par five and be lined up for an eagle but then Sunday Tiger chips in dropping a double eagle on you then you some how miss the eagle put. Now instead of being up a stoke your down two. Apparently Jacoby Ellsbury has that too.
There’s regular Jacoby and Playoff Jacoby. We saw it last year and he picked up right where he left off last night. Playoff Jacoby was all over the field last night. He made a sick catch in center and a play that not a lot of other players could physically do by going to third on a ground ball to the pitcher. Last night we saw Playoff Jacoby using his 99 speed a couple of times.
In 33 games last year Ellsbury hit .353 with a .394 OBP, nine steals, seven doubles and three homers. Then in October he played in 11 games hitting over .400 with seven runs scored, four doubles, three RBI and two steals…see it’s Sunday Jacoby.
3rd inning – Some times coaches and managers are just the right fit for a team. Tito took a lot of criticism when he first got here but all he’s done is win two World Series and get the team to the playoffs in four of his five seasons. He might not be the greatest manager ever, but he has been the perfect manager for this team since he’s been here. He just fits.
The same thing happened with the Celtics last year. Lot’s of people were calling for Doc Rivers to be fired. I even wrote here that the moves that Danny Ainge made saved himself and Doc from being run out of town on a rail. The Celtics obviously made drastic moves but Doc brought everyone together and found the right focal point to make things work. That’s what Tito does, he knows how to work with what he has, maybe better than anyone else in baseball. There’s no doubt Joe Maddon is the Manager of the Year but Tito has been the best manager over the past five years.
4th inning – Jason Bay isn’t not Manny, but that’s not a bad thing. Bay has been a solid addition to the Sox lineup since coming from Pittsburgh. He’s not going to intimidate teams like Manny did sitting behind Papi but he showed last night that he’s perfectly capable of changing the outcome of a game. If you like Jason Bay check out Will Leitch’s column here - http://weei.com/pages/2976620.php?
I used to be such a big Manny defender. For the last two seasons Reynolds had been emailing and calling asking if it was time for Manny to go. I always said no. I felt like he was too valuable to give away for 50 cents on the dollar. I finally came around in late August. Manny is absolutely an MVP caliber player, he has shown that in LA but he’s only that way when he’s happy Manny. When he was happy Manny here he loved it but when he was grumpy Manny or Manny le douche he was worse than anything for the team.
Obviously Bay is a defensive improvement and changes the complexion of the lineup. They lost a big bat but lets be honest Manny wasn’t producing because he wasn’t happy. The move cut the teams losses and while they didn’t get the same caliber player back they did get someone who fits the team better. As we’ve seen in the past fitting in with the team can be more positive than being a great player.
5th inning –Last year I predicted that JD Drew would breakout in the playoffs and be the teams MVP, he did hit a monster grand slam but a number of other players stepped up including Playoff Jacoby, Pedroia, Mike Lowell and Beckett. This year I’m feeling a big time performance from Jason Bay but I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised by JD Drew.
Stay with me…because Jason Bay is the guy protecting Manny in the lineup and he’s going to see more pitches to hit and he’ll probably find himself with runners on because of the depth of the Red Sox lineup. If Mike Lowell can remotely perform the Red Sox lineup is dangerous from top to bottom and I think Bay benefits from being Jason Bay.
Sometimes I think people sleep on him, like last night for example. He was struggling and looking overmatched when the Angels were throwing him curveballs then they forget and throw him a fastball and oops.
As for Drew, pretty much anything he gives you is gravy at this point because people expect so little out of him. It’s weird people expect a lot but they know they aren’t going to get it so they get pissed at him but he seems to find ways to redeem himself.
If the Sox make a deep run we’ll probably hear some start Coco instead of Drew talk on WEEI but Tito, like he does, will stick with Drew and I think he’ll be able to find a rhythm as he gets more at bats.
6th inning - The Angels are aggressive at the plate, which plays to the strengths of guys like Lester and Dice-K. If you look at some of the at bats that Vladdy da di had he swung himself into a couple of bad outs. He’s the ultimate free swinger and a lot of times he kills bad pitches but he lined out on ball four once and popped out on another pitch that was out of the zone earlier in the game. We’ll have to see if the Angels change their approach with Dice-K on the mound since he has a penchant for walks sometimes.
The Angels aggression hurt them last night. Swinging at bad pitches and Vlad running into an awful out attributed to their game one loss and if they don’t make adjustments its going to mean more consecutive playoff losses to the Red Sox.
Look at games when the Yankees have great success against the Red Sox. They are incredibly patient. Why do you think the games last five hours? You have to make the Red Sox bullpen a weakness instead of a strength. What I mean by that is you have to get to the bullpen early. If the Red Sox get to the sixth or seventh, or even the eight inning before you get to their bullpen they are going to be very hard to beat.
However if you get into the bullpen early it aids you in that game as well as future games because guys start to pitch a lot of high pressure innings very often. Dice-K has a way of getting out of jams without a lot of damage, he’s 18-3 for a reason. If Dice-K goes deep into the game on Friday night the Angels will probably be staring an elimination game at Fenway with Josh Beckett on the mound. I like the sound of that.
7th inning - I know, I know everyone is wamping about the TV coverage and I know its cliché to complain about it. This happens every year but what do you expect we get six months of pure gold with Remy and Orsillo and then we get this crap. I think it’s time to use the DVR to sync the TV and the radio (North Shore 104.9 ked) for some Dave O’Brien and Joe Castig.
8th inning - Initially when I saw the way the Red Sox celebrated clinching the wild card I thought it was a little bit over the top. Granted only four teams make the playoffs so it’s a big deal but it seemed a little much. Now I’m reminded of why this team has been so successful over the last few years. They are relaxed, they don’t tighten up, look at these guys half of them are wearing camo under their jerseys. They don’t seem to get rattled and tighten up like other teams…which sort of brings me to my next point.
9th inning – A month or even a week ago the bullpen was a point of concern but last night they looked pretty strong to me. That’s not to say they won’t have their struggles but I get excited every time I see Justin Masterson stride out of the bullpen. The bullpen is certainly strong at the back end with Masterson and Papelbon but you’re not going to get seven innings out of all of your starters every night. Like Papelbon said this after the game, the playoffs are about pitching, defense and timely hitting. The Red Sox bullpen is going to have to step up if they want to repeat at World Series champs. It’s worked in the past, riding Keith Foulke and Papelbon’s arms in the late innings and this season it looks like Tito will be calling on Masterson and Paps to close out games.
The move to Masterson in the 8th instead of Okie said a lot about how Tito is going to manage the bullpen. With Mark Texieria coming up Tito going to Masterson shows you that he thinks Masterson is for real and we can get used to him coming in to set up Papelbon. It will be interesting to see how Tito manages Okie. Masterson has clearly shown that he’s can be the set up guy for this team for a long time. Okie put up very similar numbers this year as he did last year. In fact they were nearly identical. With the exception of one of his three WS appearances Okie was pretty lock down in last season playoffs.
With Masterson establishing himself as a very strong setup man that allows Tito more flexibility with the rest of the bullpen. If you get six innings out of your starters then you have to be confident with the back end of your bullpen in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.
*all stats are courtesty of baseball-reference.com
Nine innings of thoughts on the Sox playoffs
1st inning – Jon Lester is F’n harsh. Even if Josh Beckett isn’t 100% of Josh Beckett I’m suddenly not as concerned now after Lester kicked down the door to the 2008 ALDS.
Here’s what I mean by that. 2008 is Lester’s third season in the majors and the first season he started more than 15 games, obviously his development was stalled by cancer (which only makes what he’s done more remarkable), but he went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 33 starts. Those numbers look kind of familiar…
In fact they are almost eerily similar to the numbers Josh Beckett put up in 2003. When oh-by-the-way the Marlins won the World Series. By comparison 200 was Beckett’s third season in majors and only the second season in which he started more than 4 games (He started 4 in ’01 then 21 and 23 in ’02 and ’03). In 2003 Josh Beckett went 9-8 with 3.04 ERA 152 Ks, and a 1.32 WHIP.
In the playoffs he went 2-2 but appeared in six games including the clincher at Yankee stadium, in which he pitched on three days rest and officially became Captain Kick Ass.
Last year Lester made three postseason appearances, starting and winning the final game of the World Series.
Now realistically the Red Sox aren’t going to win the World Series without Beckett pitching well but looking at the numbers I’d say Lester is certainly a guy that they can ride to multiple wins much like the Marlins rode Josh Beckett in 2003.
What’s even more encouraging is the fact that Beckett’s F-you-there’s-no-way-you’re-hitting-this-pitch-ness has trickled down to Lester. He has definitely progressed from a guy that couldn’t find the strike zone to a budding ace. I have a feeling this postseason is going to be the time that he shows everyone he is a go to guy too.
Last night proved that having Jon Lester as your plan B number one starter isn’t such a bad thing. Now if Beckett isn’t good to go by game three things will be a little different but all in all taking game one on the road with Dice-K and Beckett set to start the next two games, you’re in pretty good shape.
2nd inning – You know how the Tiger Woods video game had that ‘Sunday Tiger’ character that was a 99 in everything and he was unreal, even more so than the regular Tiger. You would hit an unreal second shot on a par five and be lined up for an eagle but then Sunday Tiger chips in dropping a double eagle on you then you some how miss the eagle put. Now instead of being up a stoke your down two. Apparently Jacoby Ellsbury has that too.
There’s regular Jacoby and Playoff Jacoby. We saw it last year and he picked up right where he left off last night. Playoff Jacoby was all over the field last night. He made a sick catch in center and a play that not a lot of other players could physically do by going to third on a ground ball to the pitcher. Last night we saw Playoff Jacoby using his 99 speed a couple of times.
In 33 games last year Ellsbury hit .353 with a .394 OBP, nine steals, seven doubles and three homers. Then in October he played in 11 games hitting over .400 with seven runs scored, four doubles, three RBI and two steals…see it’s Sunday Jacoby.
3rd inning – Some times coaches and managers are just the right fit for a team. Tito took a lot of criticism when he first got here but all he’s done is win two World Series and get the team to the playoffs in four of his five seasons. He might not be the greatest manager ever, but he has been the perfect manager for this team since he’s been here. He just fits.
The same thing happened with the Celtics last year. Lot’s of people were calling for Doc Rivers to be fired. I even wrote here that the moves that Danny Ainge made saved himself and Doc from being run out of town on a rail. The Celtics obviously made drastic moves but Doc brought everyone together and found the right focal point to make things work. That’s what Tito does, he knows how to work with what he has, maybe better than anyone else in baseball. There’s no doubt Joe Maddon is the Manager of the Year but Tito has been the best manager over the past five years.
4th inning – Jason Bay isn’t not Manny, but that’s not a bad thing. Bay has been a solid addition to the Sox lineup since coming from Pittsburgh. He’s not going to intimidate teams like Manny did sitting behind Papi but he showed last night that he’s perfectly capable of changing the outcome of a game. If you like Jason Bay check out Will Leitch’s column here - http://weei.com/pages/2976620.php?
I used to be such a big Manny defender. For the last two seasons Reynolds had been emailing and calling asking if it was time for Manny to go. I always said no. I felt like he was too valuable to give away for 50 cents on the dollar. I finally came around in late August. Manny is absolutely an MVP caliber player, he has shown that in LA but he’s only that way when he’s happy Manny. When he was happy Manny here he loved it but when he was grumpy Manny or Manny le douche he was worse than anything for the team.
Obviously Bay is a defensive improvement and changes the complexion of the lineup. They lost a big bat but lets be honest Manny wasn’t producing because he wasn’t happy. The move cut the teams losses and while they didn’t get the same caliber player back they did get someone who fits the team better. As we’ve seen in the past fitting in with the team can be more positive than being a great player.
5th inning –Last year I predicted that JD Drew would breakout in the playoffs and be the teams MVP, he did hit a monster grand slam but a number of other players stepped up including Playoff Jacoby, Pedroia, Mike Lowell and Beckett. This year I’m feeling a big time performance from Jason Bay but I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised by JD Drew.
Stay with me…because Jason Bay is the guy protecting Manny in the lineup and he’s going to see more pitches to hit and he’ll probably find himself with runners on because of the depth of the Red Sox lineup. If Mike Lowell can remotely perform the Red Sox lineup is dangerous from top to bottom and I think Bay benefits from being Jason Bay.
Sometimes I think people sleep on him, like last night for example. He was struggling and looking overmatched when the Angels were throwing him curveballs then they forget and throw him a fastball and oops.
As for Drew, pretty much anything he gives you is gravy at this point because people expect so little out of him. It’s weird people expect a lot but they know they aren’t going to get it so they get pissed at him but he seems to find ways to redeem himself.
If the Sox make a deep run we’ll probably hear some start Coco instead of Drew talk on WEEI but Tito, like he does, will stick with Drew and I think he’ll be able to find a rhythm as he gets more at bats.
6th inning - The Angels are aggressive at the plate, which plays to the strengths of guys like Lester and Dice-K. If you look at some of the at bats that Vladdy da di had he swung himself into a couple of bad outs. He’s the ultimate free swinger and a lot of times he kills bad pitches but he lined out on ball four once and popped out on another pitch that was out of the zone earlier in the game. We’ll have to see if the Angels change their approach with Dice-K on the mound since he has a penchant for walks sometimes.
The Angels aggression hurt them last night. Swinging at bad pitches and Vlad running into an awful out attributed to their game one loss and if they don’t make adjustments its going to mean more consecutive playoff losses to the Red Sox.
Look at games when the Yankees have great success against the Red Sox. They are incredibly patient. Why do you think the games last five hours? You have to make the Red Sox bullpen a weakness instead of a strength. What I mean by that is you have to get to the bullpen early. If the Red Sox get to the sixth or seventh, or even the eight inning before you get to their bullpen they are going to be very hard to beat.
However if you get into the bullpen early it aids you in that game as well as future games because guys start to pitch a lot of high pressure innings very often. Dice-K has a way of getting out of jams without a lot of damage, he’s 18-3 for a reason. If Dice-K goes deep into the game on Friday night the Angels will probably be staring an elimination game at Fenway with Josh Beckett on the mound. I like the sound of that.
7th inning - I know, I know everyone is wamping about the TV coverage and I know its cliché to complain about it. This happens every year but what do you expect we get six months of pure gold with Remy and Orsillo and then we get this crap. I think it’s time to use the DVR to sync the TV and the radio (North Shore 104.9 ked) for some Dave O’Brien and Joe Castig.
8th inning - Initially when I saw the way the Red Sox celebrated clinching the wild card I thought it was a little bit over the top. Granted only four teams make the playoffs so it’s a big deal but it seemed a little much. Now I’m reminded of why this team has been so successful over the last few years. They are relaxed, they don’t tighten up, look at these guys half of them are wearing camo under their jerseys. They don’t seem to get rattled and tighten up like other teams…which sort of brings me to my next point.
9th inning – A month or even a week ago the bullpen was a point of concern but last night they looked pretty strong to me. That’s not to say they won’t have their struggles but I get excited every time I see Justin Masterson stride out of the bullpen. The bullpen is certainly strong at the back end with Masterson and Papelbon but you’re not going to get seven innings out of all of your starters every night. Like Papelbon said this after the game, the playoffs are about pitching, defense and timely hitting. The Red Sox bullpen is going to have to step up if they want to repeat at World Series champs. It’s worked in the past, riding Keith Foulke and Papelbon’s arms in the late innings and this season it looks like Tito will be calling on Masterson and Paps to close out games.
The move to Masterson in the 8th instead of Okie said a lot about how Tito is going to manage the bullpen. With Mark Texieria coming up Tito going to Masterson shows you that he thinks Masterson is for real and we can get used to him coming in to set up Papelbon. It will be interesting to see how Tito manages Okie. Masterson has clearly shown that he’s can be the set up guy for this team for a long time. Okie put up very similar numbers this year as he did last year. In fact they were nearly identical. With the exception of one of his three WS appearances Okie was pretty lock down in last season playoffs.
With Masterson establishing himself as a very strong setup man that allows Tito more flexibility with the rest of the bullpen. If you get six innings out of your starters then you have to be confident with the back end of your bullpen in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.
*all stats are courtesty of baseball-reference.com
Thursday, October 18, 2007
It Ain't Over...Yet
I don't understand what has happened to the Sox...what happened to the nine batters in the top 42 in pitches per at bat? How do you go from that to being completely inept at the plate in one extra inning game? I don't get it...You pretty much got what was to be expected from Wake but what is going on with the offense.
Like I said I am a fan of the way that Tito sticks with his guys but we could use a lineup shake up...at least move around some guys like Pedroia and Yook maybe hit Ellsbury lead-off instead of Coco? At this point could it really hurt that much to take out Coco for a game? I like Coco, I really do but something has to be said for the spark Ellsbury gave the Sox down the stretch. The most encouraging stat of the last two days…the 2004 Red Sox were the last team to come back from down 3-1…oh and while we are on the subject the last team before the Sox…the 2003 Marlins against the Cubs…guess who pitched the game that sparked that turn around, yup you got it Josh Beckett.
See all is not lost we are one dominating Beckett performance and a Cleveland equivalent of Bartmann away from coming back and making a Rockies-eque run to the World Series. I talked about Ellsbury subbing in for JD Drew after watching the Red Sox look inept at that plate for two days I think Tito should have gone with Jacoby for Coco Crisp...granted JD was brought in to be a five hitter and that's not what the Sox are expecting from Coco but I think the Sox could have used Jacoby in the lineup against Byrd.
Going into a backs-against-the-wall game five the thing that makes me most nervous is the fact that this team isn’t at loose as the 2004 team. Granted you don’t need Johnny Damon doing naked pull-ups or anything but they seem tense. Of course there is always Manny to save us…there was a lot of outrage over his comments about losing not being the end of the world. And you know what, he’s right it’s not. If they go into these games thinking we have to win or else the chances of trying to do too much and failing are much greater.
I heard people say Manny looked stupid after he hit that home run last night and he was pimpin it at the plate becasue the Sox are down but didn't he do the same thing in 2003 in Oakland? If memory serves me correctly the Sox were down and Manny wasn't hitting well he hit a homer, pimped it and the Sox came back to win the series on two of the most codes pitches i've ever seen al la Derek Lowe
Hopefully the fact that the guys were playing Tecmo Bowl in the clubhouse yesterday means they are loose and if they are loose and play like they have nothing to lose then I think the Sox have a great chance to come back. I know it’s a little much to think the Sox could have two improbable comebacks in 2004 and 2007 but with a little luck it could definitely happen.
If you think about it the Sox were down 3-0 to the Yankees in ’04 and Mark Bellhorn and Johnny Damon were something like 2-for-23 (I think that’s right) then all of a sudden they come around and the Sox win eight in a row. Like I said we are only a few bounces going our way from coming back. Namely a Drew and Crisp or Pedroia turnaround, those guys can help Otriz, Manny and Lowell carry the load we could see another World Series in Boston.
See all is not lost we are one dominating Beckett performance and a Cleveland equivalent of Bartmann away from coming back and making a Rockies-eque run to the World Series. I talked about Ellsbury subbing in for JD Drew after watching the Red Sox look inept at that plate for two days I think Tito should have gone with Jacoby for Coco Crisp...granted JD was brought in to be a five hitter and that's not what the Sox are expecting from Coco but I think the Sox could have used Jacoby in the lineup against Byrd.
Going into a backs-against-the-wall game five the thing that makes me most nervous is the fact that this team isn’t at loose as the 2004 team. Granted you don’t need Johnny Damon doing naked pull-ups or anything but they seem tense. Of course there is always Manny to save us…there was a lot of outrage over his comments about losing not being the end of the world. And you know what, he’s right it’s not. If they go into these games thinking we have to win or else the chances of trying to do too much and failing are much greater.
I heard people say Manny looked stupid after he hit that home run last night and he was pimpin it at the plate becasue the Sox are down but didn't he do the same thing in 2003 in Oakland? If memory serves me correctly the Sox were down and Manny wasn't hitting well he hit a homer, pimped it and the Sox came back to win the series on two of the most codes pitches i've ever seen al la Derek Lowe
Hopefully the fact that the guys were playing Tecmo Bowl in the clubhouse yesterday means they are loose and if they are loose and play like they have nothing to lose then I think the Sox have a great chance to come back. I know it’s a little much to think the Sox could have two improbable comebacks in 2004 and 2007 but with a little luck it could definitely happen.
If you think about it the Sox were down 3-0 to the Yankees in ’04 and Mark Bellhorn and Johnny Damon were something like 2-for-23 (I think that’s right) then all of a sudden they come around and the Sox win eight in a row. Like I said we are only a few bounces going our way from coming back. Namely a Drew and Crisp or Pedroia turnaround, those guys can help Otriz, Manny and Lowell carry the load we could see another World Series in Boston.
Manny turned it around in the ’03 ALDS, Damon and Bellhorn in the ’04 ALCS, all we need is someone to do it in 2007. I just hope it’s not too late, and I really hope tonight isn’t one of those games where everyone says ‘there’s no way they lose this game’ then they get smoked. Can Tom Brady lend Drew, Crisp or Pedroia some of his ‘I am winning this f’n game’ swag for a night or two? Please.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Let's Go Wakefield
I guess I was wrong in thinking that Ken Rosenthal was getting tired of being asked about whether the Red Sox would start Beckett in tonight's game. This is what he wrote today on Fox Sports...he makes a good argument for why the Red Sox should start Beckett on short rest but I have to disagree.
A lot of the debate is centered around Beckett's shutout of the Yankees to clinch the '03 World Series. Think about this when Beckett pitched on three days rest in 2004 it was the last day of the season. There wasn't going to be another game and that could still be the case if the Sox don't win tonight but Tito managing to win a World Series.
That means he has to think about the fact that he's going to want Beckett to pitch twice in the World Series...of course they have to make it there...but in 2003 the very old school Jack McKeon wasn't concerned with Beckett coming back to pitch again until the day pitchers and catchers reported in 2004.
I'm not even going to go into the fact that the numbers are pretty clearly against starting guys on three days rest and that's because Beckett is not someone like Chen-Ming Wang and I'm sure he'd be fine on short rest. The biggest thing here is that Tito has already said he's going with Wakefield but Fox and ESPN insist that there is a story here. There might be a debate about whether that is the right choice but it's not a story, the Sox are going with Wake...and they should.
If the Red Sox are going to win the ALCS, never mind the World Series, then someone besides Josh Beckett is going to have to win a game.
If you throw Beckett tonight and tie the series at 2-2 then what? the Combo of Wake, Schilling and Dice-K still has to win at least one game. I love Beckett and he is pitching great but someone else has to step up or it won't matter if he wins game one, four and seven. I agree with Tito and think that going with Wakefield tonight and Beckett on normal rest you have a better chance of winning the series than trying to rely solely on the right arm of Josh Beckett.
I think that's more of a reason not to start Beckett tonight than worrying about him getting hurt. I don't think the Red Sox are worried that he'll get hurt or even get lit up. I think they are conscious of the fact that someone else needs to win a game...or at least pitch more than 4+ innings. Also if the Sox beat the Indians last night would C.C. Sabathia be pitching tonight on 3 days rest? Would that be the big story today...the Indians are crazy to not start Sabathia or the Indians are coddling Sabathia by not starting him on three days rest.
People probably wouldn't be saying that about Sabathia because he has not pitched all that well but what about things over in the NL? Brandon Webb didn't pitch on three days rest for the D-Backs and they were down 3-0 in the NLCS. Why aren't people talking about Arizona being crazy for not starting its ace on three days rest in an elimination game? The Red Sox offense needs to start clicking and stop stranding runners. It's the same as the pitching someone other than Beckett needs to win a game and someone other than Manny, Papi and Lowell needs to get some clutch hits.
The real questions surrounding who the Red Sox should send out isn't about who should pitch but whether the Sox should stick with JD Drew or switch to Jacoby Ellsbury in right. I am sure there is a large contingent of people that are feeling like JD's had his chance and its time to bring in Jacoby but I have to disagree.
Something has to be said for Drew's experience and the fact that Ellsbury only has 160-some-odd at-bats. I know you're thinking I'm only saying that because I said I thought he'd have good postseason, clearly i was wrong but I think you have to go the Tito route and stick with you guy in this case.
My reasoning for this is simple. Everyone hates the fact that Drew seems to play with no emotion he just goes out and plays, sometimes well sometimes not so well. Either way he carries himself like his veins are full of embalming fluid...and maybe some Worcestershire sauce...people here love guys like Trot and Youkilis who wear their emotion on their sleeves but that's not JD Drew and that is exactly why he is perfect for this series. Look at what Pedroia has done in the post season. He was .317/.380/.422 with 50 RBI, a team low 42 strikeouts in 520 at-bats in the regular season. In the postseason he's .160/.222/.240 with seven strikeouts and one RBI in 25 at-bats.
I think that is a result of him trying to do to much, changing his approach to the plate and trying to force it. Drew isn't going to do that he's going to stick to his gameplan and emotion is not going to make him try to force it.
Granted his gameplan hasn't worked all that well he's not going to succum to the pressures of the biggest stage. I have faith in Jacoby and I wouldn't be upset if the Sox sent him out there I just don't know if it's the right move. As for tonight I think it might be best to start Bobby Kielty as his numbers against Paul Byrd are pretty good.
A lot of the debate is centered around Beckett's shutout of the Yankees to clinch the '03 World Series. Think about this when Beckett pitched on three days rest in 2004 it was the last day of the season. There wasn't going to be another game and that could still be the case if the Sox don't win tonight but Tito managing to win a World Series.
That means he has to think about the fact that he's going to want Beckett to pitch twice in the World Series...of course they have to make it there...but in 2003 the very old school Jack McKeon wasn't concerned with Beckett coming back to pitch again until the day pitchers and catchers reported in 2004.
I'm not even going to go into the fact that the numbers are pretty clearly against starting guys on three days rest and that's because Beckett is not someone like Chen-Ming Wang and I'm sure he'd be fine on short rest. The biggest thing here is that Tito has already said he's going with Wakefield but Fox and ESPN insist that there is a story here. There might be a debate about whether that is the right choice but it's not a story, the Sox are going with Wake...and they should.
If the Red Sox are going to win the ALCS, never mind the World Series, then someone besides Josh Beckett is going to have to win a game.
If you throw Beckett tonight and tie the series at 2-2 then what? the Combo of Wake, Schilling and Dice-K still has to win at least one game. I love Beckett and he is pitching great but someone else has to step up or it won't matter if he wins game one, four and seven. I agree with Tito and think that going with Wakefield tonight and Beckett on normal rest you have a better chance of winning the series than trying to rely solely on the right arm of Josh Beckett.
I think that's more of a reason not to start Beckett tonight than worrying about him getting hurt. I don't think the Red Sox are worried that he'll get hurt or even get lit up. I think they are conscious of the fact that someone else needs to win a game...or at least pitch more than 4+ innings. Also if the Sox beat the Indians last night would C.C. Sabathia be pitching tonight on 3 days rest? Would that be the big story today...the Indians are crazy to not start Sabathia or the Indians are coddling Sabathia by not starting him on three days rest.
People probably wouldn't be saying that about Sabathia because he has not pitched all that well but what about things over in the NL? Brandon Webb didn't pitch on three days rest for the D-Backs and they were down 3-0 in the NLCS. Why aren't people talking about Arizona being crazy for not starting its ace on three days rest in an elimination game? The Red Sox offense needs to start clicking and stop stranding runners. It's the same as the pitching someone other than Beckett needs to win a game and someone other than Manny, Papi and Lowell needs to get some clutch hits.
The real questions surrounding who the Red Sox should send out isn't about who should pitch but whether the Sox should stick with JD Drew or switch to Jacoby Ellsbury in right. I am sure there is a large contingent of people that are feeling like JD's had his chance and its time to bring in Jacoby but I have to disagree.
Something has to be said for Drew's experience and the fact that Ellsbury only has 160-some-odd at-bats. I know you're thinking I'm only saying that because I said I thought he'd have good postseason, clearly i was wrong but I think you have to go the Tito route and stick with you guy in this case.
My reasoning for this is simple. Everyone hates the fact that Drew seems to play with no emotion he just goes out and plays, sometimes well sometimes not so well. Either way he carries himself like his veins are full of embalming fluid...and maybe some Worcestershire sauce...people here love guys like Trot and Youkilis who wear their emotion on their sleeves but that's not JD Drew and that is exactly why he is perfect for this series. Look at what Pedroia has done in the post season. He was .317/.380/.422 with 50 RBI, a team low 42 strikeouts in 520 at-bats in the regular season. In the postseason he's .160/.222/.240 with seven strikeouts and one RBI in 25 at-bats.
I think that is a result of him trying to do to much, changing his approach to the plate and trying to force it. Drew isn't going to do that he's going to stick to his gameplan and emotion is not going to make him try to force it.
Granted his gameplan hasn't worked all that well he's not going to succum to the pressures of the biggest stage. I have faith in Jacoby and I wouldn't be upset if the Sox sent him out there I just don't know if it's the right move. As for tonight I think it might be best to start Bobby Kielty as his numbers against Paul Byrd are pretty good.
Monday, October 15, 2007
And so Began the Curse of Kason Gabbard
I hate Eric Gagne. It is really that simple...he eats. I know I said that I thought the Red Sox would win the ALCS in 6 games but oh it BURNS to watch the Sox lose a winnable game like the Saturday night debacle.
I am not criticizing Tito for going with Gagne in the 11th like he did, he really didn't have much of a choice at that point and even if he loaded the bases in game one he still got out of the jam. Here is my issue thought. You cannot trust Gagne in any situation even if it's 10-3 he still almost made it interesting. Gagne was the best choice we had at that point, but that is the problem. You can't feel good about the Red Sox bullpen after Papelbon. MDC, Okie and Timlin have been getting it done but Gagne and Lopez, yikes.
Also Lester has two career relief appearances so he's not a great option. It comes down to this the offense has to stop stranding runners and guys like Tek, Coco and Lugo have to start coming up with hits. Manny, Papi and Lowell can only do so much. I hate the fact that Gagne is even on the playoff roster. Tito is all about sticking with his guys and I think he does a great job in the long term but sometimes his short-term moves are questionable.
In this case I think the decision to stick with Gagne was a poor one, maybe he'll prove me wrong but does anyone have any faith in this guy at this point? When he runs out of the bullpen shouldn't Johnny Cash's version of 'Hurt' (I will let you down. I will make you hurt) be booming on the PA system? He's that depressing, it makes me want to re-enact that scene from Royal Tennenbaums when Richie shaves his beard then goes train tracks on his arms.
Like I said I'm not second-guessing Tito for going to Gagne but I am second-guessing having him on the playoff roster. I really think it would have been more effective to have Brian Corey, Tavarez (he's solid the first time through the lineup) or Clay Buchholz. I would be infinitely more confident in anyone of those guys. Of course you probably wouldn't be going to Buchholz in the 11th but I could see Corey or Tavarez coming in and in my opinion we should be. What to do with Gagne? Most people I've talked to wouldn't mind repeatedly kicking him in the nuts but in my opinion should he be tarred and feathered outside the Cask n Flagon.
Hey Joe and Tim the Sox aren't starting Beckett on three days rest, so please, for my sanity, shut the fuck up...Why do they keep talking about this. At some point Ken Rosenthal is going to pick up a bat and march into the broadcast booth. Really, Tito vehemently said that Tim Wakefield was starting game four. They are not going to bring Beckett back on three days rest, even if it might seem like a more desirable situation.
All I know is the bats need to come through in game three or it is going to be a Rockies-Indians World Series. I love Mike Lowell but I could really go for a Bill Mueller at-bat right now...lets see if my faith in JD gets rewarded...nope...a game two loss looms ever larger now that we couldn't beat Jake Westbrook. If Tim Wakefield were ever going to pitch a career game, tomorrow would be a good time.
To tell you the truth I actually have faith in Wake. He's been hurt and that’s not good but if he is on he can be really, really tough on hitters. If he can avoid that one inning where he just loses it we'll be in good shape. Game four is pretty much a win-at-all-costs game you don't want to go down three games to one to the Indians with Sabathia being the guy you have to face in an elimination game. Even if the Sox and Yankees did knock him around he's still tough and I feel like there is a better chance he'll pitch well then not well. Then again the Sox could be throwing Beckett, but I'd still feel a lot better going into game five tied at 2-2 then down 3-1. Yeah thanks captain obvious.
My superstitions are starting to get the best of me they aren’t what they were in 2004 or 2001 for that matter. Back then I was knocking on wood so frequently that I couldn’t hold a pencil in school the day after the Super Bowl but we are getting there. I have worn the same jeans t-shirt, hat and jersey to watch all three games and tonight for good measure I broke out the ‘04 shirt for a little extra mojo. Unfortunately it’s not working.
Don’t be alarmed though I still have a few aces up my sleeves for the remaining games. I’m pulling out all the stops tomorrow and bringing in the big guns…a.k.a. Petunia (yeah she’s a dashboard hula girl but she’s lucky)…God, the girlfriend is going to hate me by the time the playoffs are over.
I am not criticizing Tito for going with Gagne in the 11th like he did, he really didn't have much of a choice at that point and even if he loaded the bases in game one he still got out of the jam. Here is my issue thought. You cannot trust Gagne in any situation even if it's 10-3 he still almost made it interesting. Gagne was the best choice we had at that point, but that is the problem. You can't feel good about the Red Sox bullpen after Papelbon. MDC, Okie and Timlin have been getting it done but Gagne and Lopez, yikes.
Also Lester has two career relief appearances so he's not a great option. It comes down to this the offense has to stop stranding runners and guys like Tek, Coco and Lugo have to start coming up with hits. Manny, Papi and Lowell can only do so much. I hate the fact that Gagne is even on the playoff roster. Tito is all about sticking with his guys and I think he does a great job in the long term but sometimes his short-term moves are questionable.
In this case I think the decision to stick with Gagne was a poor one, maybe he'll prove me wrong but does anyone have any faith in this guy at this point? When he runs out of the bullpen shouldn't Johnny Cash's version of 'Hurt' (I will let you down. I will make you hurt) be booming on the PA system? He's that depressing, it makes me want to re-enact that scene from Royal Tennenbaums when Richie shaves his beard then goes train tracks on his arms.
Like I said I'm not second-guessing Tito for going to Gagne but I am second-guessing having him on the playoff roster. I really think it would have been more effective to have Brian Corey, Tavarez (he's solid the first time through the lineup) or Clay Buchholz. I would be infinitely more confident in anyone of those guys. Of course you probably wouldn't be going to Buchholz in the 11th but I could see Corey or Tavarez coming in and in my opinion we should be. What to do with Gagne? Most people I've talked to wouldn't mind repeatedly kicking him in the nuts but in my opinion should he be tarred and feathered outside the Cask n Flagon.
Hey Joe and Tim the Sox aren't starting Beckett on three days rest, so please, for my sanity, shut the fuck up...Why do they keep talking about this. At some point Ken Rosenthal is going to pick up a bat and march into the broadcast booth. Really, Tito vehemently said that Tim Wakefield was starting game four. They are not going to bring Beckett back on three days rest, even if it might seem like a more desirable situation.
All I know is the bats need to come through in game three or it is going to be a Rockies-Indians World Series. I love Mike Lowell but I could really go for a Bill Mueller at-bat right now...lets see if my faith in JD gets rewarded...nope...a game two loss looms ever larger now that we couldn't beat Jake Westbrook. If Tim Wakefield were ever going to pitch a career game, tomorrow would be a good time.
To tell you the truth I actually have faith in Wake. He's been hurt and that’s not good but if he is on he can be really, really tough on hitters. If he can avoid that one inning where he just loses it we'll be in good shape. Game four is pretty much a win-at-all-costs game you don't want to go down three games to one to the Indians with Sabathia being the guy you have to face in an elimination game. Even if the Sox and Yankees did knock him around he's still tough and I feel like there is a better chance he'll pitch well then not well. Then again the Sox could be throwing Beckett, but I'd still feel a lot better going into game five tied at 2-2 then down 3-1. Yeah thanks captain obvious.
My superstitions are starting to get the best of me they aren’t what they were in 2004 or 2001 for that matter. Back then I was knocking on wood so frequently that I couldn’t hold a pencil in school the day after the Super Bowl but we are getting there. I have worn the same jeans t-shirt, hat and jersey to watch all three games and tonight for good measure I broke out the ‘04 shirt for a little extra mojo. Unfortunately it’s not working.
Don’t be alarmed though I still have a few aces up my sleeves for the remaining games. I’m pulling out all the stops tomorrow and bringing in the big guns…a.k.a. Petunia (yeah she’s a dashboard hula girl but she’s lucky)…God, the girlfriend is going to hate me by the time the playoffs are over.
Friday, October 12, 2007
ALCS Preview
I don’t know if you know this, and if you’ve been watching ESPN recently you might not, but the Red Sox and Indians are playing in the ALCS. I know the Yankees stories are interesting but I think most of it can hold off until something actually happens or the season ends.
There are too solid series coming up. Even if I really don’t care about the Rockies or the Diamondbacks I’m still going to watch it because who the hell would have thought the Rockies would be on the roll that they are on right now. Obviously I’ll be watching the Sox-Indians, that is a no-brainier. Here is my version of a preview/things I’m looking forward to.
First, game one, the two front runners for the Cy Young award going head to head at Fenway. I’ve always been partial to pitchers duels, I’m not sure why but they are more exciting to me than a high scoring game. I think it’s because every hit or runner in scoring position could turnout to be the game. By the time you get to the sixth or seventh inning there is so much emotion and excitement attached to each strike call or each base runner and in my opinion that makes for a more thrilling finish.
Second, this is a really, really good match up. Cleveland has great starting pitching and they’ll be able to start Sabathia and Carmona twice in the seven game series. The Red Sox will also get to start their one-two pitchers twice. At the start of the playoffs the Sabathia-Carmona duo loomed a lot larger than Beckett-Schilling or Beckett-Dice-K but now I’d say Cleveland has a slight edge in starting pitching but the Sox have the more solid bullpen and I’ll take Dice-K/Wake/Lester over Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd.
Also no more shots of Aaron Boone or Bucky Dent by hopefully plenty of shots of Pedro coming out of the bullpen in 1999.
Schilling might be the most important piece in the ACLS for the Sox. He has been pitching great over the last month or so and looked tremendous in the DS. If the Sox can get a start like his performance in game three then Schilling-Carmona could come down to one or two key hits. If that is the case I like the Red Sox chances. Not to discredit the Indians with guys like Sizemore, Hafner, Garko and Blake but I really think the advantage is to the Red Sox with Manny, Papi, Lowell, Yook, Tek, Coco and even JD Drew.
Yes JD Drew, I will continue to say that he’s going to come through even if I continue to take flak for it. Here are his numbers from the ALDS.
Two hits in 11 at bats, one run scored, three RBI, .182 batting average/OBP/SLG. That is not good but here is a positive stat. In the two LCS he’s played in he is 9-for-25 with three runs, two RBI, a .360 batting average, .385 OBP and .520 Slugging. Not great but not Nancy Drew either. Although in eight postseason series his teams have gone 3-5 including 0-2 in LCS. I guess it’s a good thing we are banking on Manny, Papi, Beckett, Schill and Paps.
I know that you can’t deny how good C.C. Sabathia is, but I read this on Sons of Sam Horn the other day…
Manny versus Sabathia:.571/.609/1.286 = 1.895 (23 PA)
Also, I know I just talked about JD Drew coming through but I read this on the same SOSH post…Kielty versus Sabathia: .310/.375/.655 = 1.030 (32 PA)…JD enjoy the extra day off.
The big guns will do there thing in this series which means its probably going to come down to one or more of the following key players - Rafel Bettencourt (who is also codes), Joe Borowski, Victor Martinez, MDC, Okie, Drew or Dice-K. Both bullpens are going to be huge in this series and if the Sox can get to the Cleveland pen it will be interesting to see how Borowski does against Manny, Papi and the rest of the Sox lineup.
Of course if the two teams split games one and two like they did in the Sabathia and Carmona match ups during the year (Dice-K beat C.C. 1-0 then Carmona beat Beckett 1-0 the next night) then the starter in game three is going to be critical. Dice-K has shown he has got great stuff but can he come up big on the biggest stage for the Sox? I can’t wait to find out. I know said Schilling might be the most important piece for the Sox but now I think it’s probably Dice-K, especially when Cleveland can start Carmona and Sabathia twice in a seven game series. Here’s to taking a pair of 1-0 wins in games one and two.
In other related news I have a bone to pick with ESPN Page 2. How is the steal not the number one LCS moment? Seriously if Aaron Boone’s home run is number two how the hell is the steal not number one? I mean come on! The Steal sparked the greatest comeback ever and erased the pain from Boone’s home run. I don’t get how a play can be higher on the list than the play that totally one upped it the next year. Long live Dave Roberts.
It’s another big weekend in New England and I’m glad for the rest of the country’s sake that the Yankees got bounced. 90% of the country hates the Red Sox and Patriots and its been wall to wall 5-0 vs. 5-0 on ESPN this week so can you imagine the utter disgust people would feel towards New England fans if the Yankees and Sox were playing. It would have been Sox-Yanks, Pats-Cowboys all week and everyone would hate us that much more. At least now people can root for the Indians, which is nice.
Since I am such a prediction guru…ok I suck at my NFL picks...cut me some slack though I did call the Cavs-Spurs NBA Finals last November…anyway here is how I think it breaks down.
Sox in 6 (so they clinch at home)
What the hell…D-Backs in 7…the Rockies can’t keep this up right? Right?
Now if you’ll excuse me I have to make some pre-game phone calls, find a comfy spot from which I will watch every game and figure out my food choices for the duration…I don’t think I can stomach bacon pizza from dominos every time Schilling pitches I’m not as hummingbird like as I was in 2004...I’m starting to get more Grizzly-Bear-that-got-shot-in-the-ass-with-a-sedative-dartish
There are too solid series coming up. Even if I really don’t care about the Rockies or the Diamondbacks I’m still going to watch it because who the hell would have thought the Rockies would be on the roll that they are on right now. Obviously I’ll be watching the Sox-Indians, that is a no-brainier. Here is my version of a preview/things I’m looking forward to.
First, game one, the two front runners for the Cy Young award going head to head at Fenway. I’ve always been partial to pitchers duels, I’m not sure why but they are more exciting to me than a high scoring game. I think it’s because every hit or runner in scoring position could turnout to be the game. By the time you get to the sixth or seventh inning there is so much emotion and excitement attached to each strike call or each base runner and in my opinion that makes for a more thrilling finish.
Second, this is a really, really good match up. Cleveland has great starting pitching and they’ll be able to start Sabathia and Carmona twice in the seven game series. The Red Sox will also get to start their one-two pitchers twice. At the start of the playoffs the Sabathia-Carmona duo loomed a lot larger than Beckett-Schilling or Beckett-Dice-K but now I’d say Cleveland has a slight edge in starting pitching but the Sox have the more solid bullpen and I’ll take Dice-K/Wake/Lester over Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd.
Also no more shots of Aaron Boone or Bucky Dent by hopefully plenty of shots of Pedro coming out of the bullpen in 1999.
Schilling might be the most important piece in the ACLS for the Sox. He has been pitching great over the last month or so and looked tremendous in the DS. If the Sox can get a start like his performance in game three then Schilling-Carmona could come down to one or two key hits. If that is the case I like the Red Sox chances. Not to discredit the Indians with guys like Sizemore, Hafner, Garko and Blake but I really think the advantage is to the Red Sox with Manny, Papi, Lowell, Yook, Tek, Coco and even JD Drew.
Yes JD Drew, I will continue to say that he’s going to come through even if I continue to take flak for it. Here are his numbers from the ALDS.
Two hits in 11 at bats, one run scored, three RBI, .182 batting average/OBP/SLG. That is not good but here is a positive stat. In the two LCS he’s played in he is 9-for-25 with three runs, two RBI, a .360 batting average, .385 OBP and .520 Slugging. Not great but not Nancy Drew either. Although in eight postseason series his teams have gone 3-5 including 0-2 in LCS. I guess it’s a good thing we are banking on Manny, Papi, Beckett, Schill and Paps.
I know that you can’t deny how good C.C. Sabathia is, but I read this on Sons of Sam Horn the other day…
Manny versus Sabathia:.571/.609/1.286 = 1.895 (23 PA)
Also, I know I just talked about JD Drew coming through but I read this on the same SOSH post…Kielty versus Sabathia: .310/.375/.655 = 1.030 (32 PA)…JD enjoy the extra day off.
The big guns will do there thing in this series which means its probably going to come down to one or more of the following key players - Rafel Bettencourt (who is also codes), Joe Borowski, Victor Martinez, MDC, Okie, Drew or Dice-K. Both bullpens are going to be huge in this series and if the Sox can get to the Cleveland pen it will be interesting to see how Borowski does against Manny, Papi and the rest of the Sox lineup.
Of course if the two teams split games one and two like they did in the Sabathia and Carmona match ups during the year (Dice-K beat C.C. 1-0 then Carmona beat Beckett 1-0 the next night) then the starter in game three is going to be critical. Dice-K has shown he has got great stuff but can he come up big on the biggest stage for the Sox? I can’t wait to find out. I know said Schilling might be the most important piece for the Sox but now I think it’s probably Dice-K, especially when Cleveland can start Carmona and Sabathia twice in a seven game series. Here’s to taking a pair of 1-0 wins in games one and two.
In other related news I have a bone to pick with ESPN Page 2. How is the steal not the number one LCS moment? Seriously if Aaron Boone’s home run is number two how the hell is the steal not number one? I mean come on! The Steal sparked the greatest comeback ever and erased the pain from Boone’s home run. I don’t get how a play can be higher on the list than the play that totally one upped it the next year. Long live Dave Roberts.
It’s another big weekend in New England and I’m glad for the rest of the country’s sake that the Yankees got bounced. 90% of the country hates the Red Sox and Patriots and its been wall to wall 5-0 vs. 5-0 on ESPN this week so can you imagine the utter disgust people would feel towards New England fans if the Yankees and Sox were playing. It would have been Sox-Yanks, Pats-Cowboys all week and everyone would hate us that much more. At least now people can root for the Indians, which is nice.
Since I am such a prediction guru…ok I suck at my NFL picks...cut me some slack though I did call the Cavs-Spurs NBA Finals last November…anyway here is how I think it breaks down.
Sox in 6 (so they clinch at home)
What the hell…D-Backs in 7…the Rockies can’t keep this up right? Right?
Now if you’ll excuse me I have to make some pre-game phone calls, find a comfy spot from which I will watch every game and figure out my food choices for the duration…I don’t think I can stomach bacon pizza from dominos every time Schilling pitches I’m not as hummingbird like as I was in 2004...I’m starting to get more Grizzly-Bear-that-got-shot-in-the-ass-with-a-sedative-dartish
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Soxtober
You know a pitcher is having a good night when you can sense his dominance through ESPN’s gamecast. A complete game shutout with just four hit and from the highlights I saw, total dominance of the Angles, not bad Josh not bad at all. I doubt anyone is going to be missing Hanley Ramirez anymore. Oh and David Ortiz said when he was watching the game in the clubhouse batting cage it was like watching a video game...aka Beckett is codes, like I said codes theory.
Yes it’s true I had to watch the game on gamecast but I am feeling pretty confident with the Red Sox right now. A lot of people have been talking about how you can’t just flip a switch and turn it on for the playoffs. I think Josh Beckett might be an exception to that rule. Here are his playoff numbers in four series (including game one of the ’07 ALDS).
3-2 record (team won all three of the previous series), seven games, six starts, a 1.74 ERA, three complete games, 51.2 innings, 25 hits, 10 earned runs, 12 walks and 55 strikeouts.
Beckett had a great regular season in 2007 and he should be the Cy Young winner he was better than Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, I’m sorry but he was. The Red Sox should have the Rookie of the Year (Pedrioa), Gold Glove centerfielder (Coco), Gold Glove first basemen (Yook) and a couple of silver sluggers. After Beckett gave up all those home runs last year people were asking were is the Josh Beckett from 2003? Well he’s here and that is a very, very good sign for the Boston Red Sox playoff hopes in 2007.
After talking with some of my buddies and reading some stuff for the Boston Sports Guy Bill Simmons (He’ll always be digital city BSG for me) I am feeling a lot better about the Sox.
They have nine of the top 42 hitters in pitches per at bat and that ability to work the count and make pitchers throw strikes is going to be huge in the playoffs. I still truly believe that J.D. Drew is going to turn things around in the post-season too. I know that might be a little too optimistic to some but there is no reason why he shouldn’t he’s a good player and he’s got a solid line-up surrounding him.
I think the Sox lineup and pitching will be too much for the Angels. I don’t think they’ll sweep but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if Dice-K has a good outing tomorrow and the Sox bats keep him out in front. Dice-K is the uncertainty.
He could be fantastic or he could implode, from what I have seen so far this year I think needs to throw all his pitches instead of relying on his fastball and he has to avoid those innings were he melts down. That’s were the bats come in, if the Sox can get on the board early and give Dice-K a lead it’s going to be a 2-0 lead heading west for the Sox.
One more note about the Red Sox series – the extra long series could turn out to be huge especially after Beckett’s complete game. That gives the bullpen an extra day of rest and it makes the Angels spend an awful long time sitting on last nights game, that has to linger a little bit.
The Playoffs overall are going to be very exciting this year in my humble opinion. Obviously I’m excited for the Sox and I think the Indians are going to give the Yankees a run for their money but the most exciting series might be any game involving the Colorado Rockies (Oh, so that’s were Kaz Matsui went. I guess ESPN the Magazine missed the mark when they put him on the cover of their NEXT issue a couple years ago). Monday’s game was awesome and now they are up 2-0 on the Phillies.
I feel for Philly fans, I really do but how can you not root for the Rockies right now. Plus the guy from The Starting Line said he was from Philly and was going to break Tom Brady’s legs. Sorry broseph but Brady will win more Super Bowls. Anyway Go Rockies. How cool would a Rockies-Cubs NLCS be, it would definitely be one I’d watch.
The Yankees are so frustrating to watch as a non Yankee fan, they almost never swing and I hate them so it’s clearly completely different than the Red Sox (homer alert). F’n Wade Boggs.
One of the most love/hate things about the playoffs for me is all the promos for the fall shows that networks are trying to push. You know what I’m talking about…”HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!”…At least Fox has a couple of shows worth watching, namely Prison-break, but TBS, yikes.
Calm down with the Frank TV just keep showing promos for all the syndicated shows you run like old episodes of Family Guy and the Office. It is a nice break from FOX, plus we get an extra week of Don Orsillo, even if he is doing the Rockies games.
One more thing - MLB move the outfield umpires back, every announcer has made a comment about it at least once and it’s an issue that already come up three or four times with questionable home run calls.Enjoy the Playoffs.
Yes it’s true I had to watch the game on gamecast but I am feeling pretty confident with the Red Sox right now. A lot of people have been talking about how you can’t just flip a switch and turn it on for the playoffs. I think Josh Beckett might be an exception to that rule. Here are his playoff numbers in four series (including game one of the ’07 ALDS).
3-2 record (team won all three of the previous series), seven games, six starts, a 1.74 ERA, three complete games, 51.2 innings, 25 hits, 10 earned runs, 12 walks and 55 strikeouts.
Beckett had a great regular season in 2007 and he should be the Cy Young winner he was better than Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, I’m sorry but he was. The Red Sox should have the Rookie of the Year (Pedrioa), Gold Glove centerfielder (Coco), Gold Glove first basemen (Yook) and a couple of silver sluggers. After Beckett gave up all those home runs last year people were asking were is the Josh Beckett from 2003? Well he’s here and that is a very, very good sign for the Boston Red Sox playoff hopes in 2007.
After talking with some of my buddies and reading some stuff for the Boston Sports Guy Bill Simmons (He’ll always be digital city BSG for me) I am feeling a lot better about the Sox.
They have nine of the top 42 hitters in pitches per at bat and that ability to work the count and make pitchers throw strikes is going to be huge in the playoffs. I still truly believe that J.D. Drew is going to turn things around in the post-season too. I know that might be a little too optimistic to some but there is no reason why he shouldn’t he’s a good player and he’s got a solid line-up surrounding him.
I think the Sox lineup and pitching will be too much for the Angels. I don’t think they’ll sweep but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if Dice-K has a good outing tomorrow and the Sox bats keep him out in front. Dice-K is the uncertainty.
He could be fantastic or he could implode, from what I have seen so far this year I think needs to throw all his pitches instead of relying on his fastball and he has to avoid those innings were he melts down. That’s were the bats come in, if the Sox can get on the board early and give Dice-K a lead it’s going to be a 2-0 lead heading west for the Sox.
One more note about the Red Sox series – the extra long series could turn out to be huge especially after Beckett’s complete game. That gives the bullpen an extra day of rest and it makes the Angels spend an awful long time sitting on last nights game, that has to linger a little bit.
The Playoffs overall are going to be very exciting this year in my humble opinion. Obviously I’m excited for the Sox and I think the Indians are going to give the Yankees a run for their money but the most exciting series might be any game involving the Colorado Rockies (Oh, so that’s were Kaz Matsui went. I guess ESPN the Magazine missed the mark when they put him on the cover of their NEXT issue a couple years ago). Monday’s game was awesome and now they are up 2-0 on the Phillies.
I feel for Philly fans, I really do but how can you not root for the Rockies right now. Plus the guy from The Starting Line said he was from Philly and was going to break Tom Brady’s legs. Sorry broseph but Brady will win more Super Bowls. Anyway Go Rockies. How cool would a Rockies-Cubs NLCS be, it would definitely be one I’d watch.
The Yankees are so frustrating to watch as a non Yankee fan, they almost never swing and I hate them so it’s clearly completely different than the Red Sox (homer alert). F’n Wade Boggs.
One of the most love/hate things about the playoffs for me is all the promos for the fall shows that networks are trying to push. You know what I’m talking about…”HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!”…At least Fox has a couple of shows worth watching, namely Prison-break, but TBS, yikes.
Calm down with the Frank TV just keep showing promos for all the syndicated shows you run like old episodes of Family Guy and the Office. It is a nice break from FOX, plus we get an extra week of Don Orsillo, even if he is doing the Rockies games.
One more thing - MLB move the outfield umpires back, every announcer has made a comment about it at least once and it’s an issue that already come up three or four times with questionable home run calls.Enjoy the Playoffs.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Rad Sox...sort of...maybe...I hope
Yes I needed a quick time out…and maybe a little bit of a mound conference with myself. I’ve settled down thought and I’d like to apologize for my rash reaction to the current state of the Red Sox. I was upset…can you blame me?
The Red Sox are going to make the playoffs and if they don’t win the division it’s a disappointment but not the biggest choke job ever. That is still reserved for the 2004 ALCS. It’s still not a great situation, 14.5 games down to 1.5 is weak. However making the playoffs is the first step to the ultimate goal of winning a world series. I’m not sure that this team is one that will be able to win a World Series, namely because the offense has been limping along for a while and the bullpen right now is in shambles.
A few weeks ago the Red Sox pitching staff was one that could carry a team through the playoffs, especially if the bats could come around. Now with the pitching staff struggling the problems with the offense are louder then ever.
Like Bob Ryan said in his Globe column, “is this a team that inspires confidence?” Not right now that is for sure. I think they have a chance to be that team again but something needs to happen to give them that finishing kick. They don’t have to win the division to win the World Series we have seen wild cards win (see 2002 and 2004) but there is something to be said for momentum. Of course 2004 is a pretty good example of momentum not being an issue and shows that momentum can swing at any given time.
I thought the Bucholz no hitter would be a catalyst for the rest of the season, then after Papi’s walk off I was certain they’d take the division by 5-7 games. I am all for the excitement of a close race but not when it looks like my team is going to fall apart at any second.
One thing is for sure the pitching and offense has got to get better if the Red Sox have any hope of making a run in the playoffs. If they continue to play this way it’s going to be a very, very short Sox-tober.
The Red Sox are going to make the playoffs and if they don’t win the division it’s a disappointment but not the biggest choke job ever. That is still reserved for the 2004 ALCS. It’s still not a great situation, 14.5 games down to 1.5 is weak. However making the playoffs is the first step to the ultimate goal of winning a world series. I’m not sure that this team is one that will be able to win a World Series, namely because the offense has been limping along for a while and the bullpen right now is in shambles.
A few weeks ago the Red Sox pitching staff was one that could carry a team through the playoffs, especially if the bats could come around. Now with the pitching staff struggling the problems with the offense are louder then ever.
Like Bob Ryan said in his Globe column, “is this a team that inspires confidence?” Not right now that is for sure. I think they have a chance to be that team again but something needs to happen to give them that finishing kick. They don’t have to win the division to win the World Series we have seen wild cards win (see 2002 and 2004) but there is something to be said for momentum. Of course 2004 is a pretty good example of momentum not being an issue and shows that momentum can swing at any given time.
I thought the Bucholz no hitter would be a catalyst for the rest of the season, then after Papi’s walk off I was certain they’d take the division by 5-7 games. I am all for the excitement of a close race but not when it looks like my team is going to fall apart at any second.
One thing is for sure the pitching and offense has got to get better if the Red Sox have any hope of making a run in the playoffs. If they continue to play this way it’s going to be a very, very short Sox-tober.
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