Thursday, October 2, 2008

The Playoff Diaries Volume I

Welcome to the playoff diaries…

Nine innings of thoughts on the Sox playoffs

1st inning – Jon Lester is F’n harsh. Even if Josh Beckett isn’t 100% of Josh Beckett I’m suddenly not as concerned now after Lester kicked down the door to the 2008 ALDS.

Here’s what I mean by that. 2008 is Lester’s third season in the majors and the first season he started more than 15 games, obviously his development was stalled by cancer (which only makes what he’s done more remarkable), but he went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 152 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 33 starts. Those numbers look kind of familiar…

In fact they are almost eerily similar to the numbers Josh Beckett put up in 2003. When oh-by-the-way the Marlins won the World Series. By comparison 200 was Beckett’s third season in majors and only the second season in which he started more than 4 games (He started 4 in ’01 then 21 and 23 in ’02 and ’03). In 2003 Josh Beckett went 9-8 with 3.04 ERA 152 Ks, and a 1.32 WHIP.

In the playoffs he went 2-2 but appeared in six games including the clincher at Yankee stadium, in which he pitched on three days rest and officially became Captain Kick Ass.

Last year Lester made three postseason appearances, starting and winning the final game of the World Series.

Now realistically the Red Sox aren’t going to win the World Series without Beckett pitching well but looking at the numbers I’d say Lester is certainly a guy that they can ride to multiple wins much like the Marlins rode Josh Beckett in 2003.

What’s even more encouraging is the fact that Beckett’s F-you-there’s-no-way-you’re-hitting-this-pitch-ness has trickled down to Lester. He has definitely progressed from a guy that couldn’t find the strike zone to a budding ace. I have a feeling this postseason is going to be the time that he shows everyone he is a go to guy too.

Last night proved that having Jon Lester as your plan B number one starter isn’t such a bad thing. Now if Beckett isn’t good to go by game three things will be a little different but all in all taking game one on the road with Dice-K and Beckett set to start the next two games, you’re in pretty good shape.

2nd inning – You know how the Tiger Woods video game had that ‘Sunday Tiger’ character that was a 99 in everything and he was unreal, even more so than the regular Tiger. You would hit an unreal second shot on a par five and be lined up for an eagle but then Sunday Tiger chips in dropping a double eagle on you then you some how miss the eagle put. Now instead of being up a stoke your down two. Apparently Jacoby Ellsbury has that too.

There’s regular Jacoby and Playoff Jacoby. We saw it last year and he picked up right where he left off last night. Playoff Jacoby was all over the field last night. He made a sick catch in center and a play that not a lot of other players could physically do by going to third on a ground ball to the pitcher. Last night we saw Playoff Jacoby using his 99 speed a couple of times.

In 33 games last year Ellsbury hit .353 with a .394 OBP, nine steals, seven doubles and three homers. Then in October he played in 11 games hitting over .400 with seven runs scored, four doubles, three RBI and two steals…see it’s Sunday Jacoby.

3rd inning – Some times coaches and managers are just the right fit for a team. Tito took a lot of criticism when he first got here but all he’s done is win two World Series and get the team to the playoffs in four of his five seasons. He might not be the greatest manager ever, but he has been the perfect manager for this team since he’s been here. He just fits.

The same thing happened with the Celtics last year. Lot’s of people were calling for Doc Rivers to be fired. I even wrote here that the moves that Danny Ainge made saved himself and Doc from being run out of town on a rail. The Celtics obviously made drastic moves but Doc brought everyone together and found the right focal point to make things work. That’s what Tito does, he knows how to work with what he has, maybe better than anyone else in baseball. There’s no doubt Joe Maddon is the Manager of the Year but Tito has been the best manager over the past five years.

4th inning – Jason Bay isn’t not Manny, but that’s not a bad thing. Bay has been a solid addition to the Sox lineup since coming from Pittsburgh. He’s not going to intimidate teams like Manny did sitting behind Papi but he showed last night that he’s perfectly capable of changing the outcome of a game. If you like Jason Bay check out Will Leitch’s column here - http://weei.com/pages/2976620.php?

I used to be such a big Manny defender. For the last two seasons Reynolds had been emailing and calling asking if it was time for Manny to go. I always said no. I felt like he was too valuable to give away for 50 cents on the dollar. I finally came around in late August. Manny is absolutely an MVP caliber player, he has shown that in LA but he’s only that way when he’s happy Manny. When he was happy Manny here he loved it but when he was grumpy Manny or Manny le douche he was worse than anything for the team.

Obviously Bay is a defensive improvement and changes the complexion of the lineup. They lost a big bat but lets be honest Manny wasn’t producing because he wasn’t happy. The move cut the teams losses and while they didn’t get the same caliber player back they did get someone who fits the team better. As we’ve seen in the past fitting in with the team can be more positive than being a great player.

5th inning –Last year I predicted that JD Drew would breakout in the playoffs and be the teams MVP, he did hit a monster grand slam but a number of other players stepped up including Playoff Jacoby, Pedroia, Mike Lowell and Beckett. This year I’m feeling a big time performance from Jason Bay but I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised by JD Drew.

Stay with me…because Jason Bay is the guy protecting Manny in the lineup and he’s going to see more pitches to hit and he’ll probably find himself with runners on because of the depth of the Red Sox lineup. If Mike Lowell can remotely perform the Red Sox lineup is dangerous from top to bottom and I think Bay benefits from being Jason Bay.

Sometimes I think people sleep on him, like last night for example. He was struggling and looking overmatched when the Angels were throwing him curveballs then they forget and throw him a fastball and oops.

As for Drew, pretty much anything he gives you is gravy at this point because people expect so little out of him. It’s weird people expect a lot but they know they aren’t going to get it so they get pissed at him but he seems to find ways to redeem himself.

If the Sox make a deep run we’ll probably hear some start Coco instead of Drew talk on WEEI but Tito, like he does, will stick with Drew and I think he’ll be able to find a rhythm as he gets more at bats.

6th inning - The Angels are aggressive at the plate, which plays to the strengths of guys like Lester and Dice-K. If you look at some of the at bats that Vladdy da di had he swung himself into a couple of bad outs. He’s the ultimate free swinger and a lot of times he kills bad pitches but he lined out on ball four once and popped out on another pitch that was out of the zone earlier in the game. We’ll have to see if the Angels change their approach with Dice-K on the mound since he has a penchant for walks sometimes.

The Angels aggression hurt them last night. Swinging at bad pitches and Vlad running into an awful out attributed to their game one loss and if they don’t make adjustments its going to mean more consecutive playoff losses to the Red Sox.

Look at games when the Yankees have great success against the Red Sox. They are incredibly patient. Why do you think the games last five hours? You have to make the Red Sox bullpen a weakness instead of a strength. What I mean by that is you have to get to the bullpen early. If the Red Sox get to the sixth or seventh, or even the eight inning before you get to their bullpen they are going to be very hard to beat.

However if you get into the bullpen early it aids you in that game as well as future games because guys start to pitch a lot of high pressure innings very often. Dice-K has a way of getting out of jams without a lot of damage, he’s 18-3 for a reason. If Dice-K goes deep into the game on Friday night the Angels will probably be staring an elimination game at Fenway with Josh Beckett on the mound. I like the sound of that.

7th inning - I know, I know everyone is wamping about the TV coverage and I know its cliché to complain about it. This happens every year but what do you expect we get six months of pure gold with Remy and Orsillo and then we get this crap. I think it’s time to use the DVR to sync the TV and the radio (North Shore 104.9 ked) for some Dave O’Brien and Joe Castig.

8th inning - Initially when I saw the way the Red Sox celebrated clinching the wild card I thought it was a little bit over the top. Granted only four teams make the playoffs so it’s a big deal but it seemed a little much. Now I’m reminded of why this team has been so successful over the last few years. They are relaxed, they don’t tighten up, look at these guys half of them are wearing camo under their jerseys. They don’t seem to get rattled and tighten up like other teams…which sort of brings me to my next point.

9th inning – A month or even a week ago the bullpen was a point of concern but last night they looked pretty strong to me. That’s not to say they won’t have their struggles but I get excited every time I see Justin Masterson stride out of the bullpen. The bullpen is certainly strong at the back end with Masterson and Papelbon but you’re not going to get seven innings out of all of your starters every night. Like Papelbon said this after the game, the playoffs are about pitching, defense and timely hitting. The Red Sox bullpen is going to have to step up if they want to repeat at World Series champs. It’s worked in the past, riding Keith Foulke and Papelbon’s arms in the late innings and this season it looks like Tito will be calling on Masterson and Paps to close out games.

The move to Masterson in the 8th instead of Okie said a lot about how Tito is going to manage the bullpen. With Mark Texieria coming up Tito going to Masterson shows you that he thinks Masterson is for real and we can get used to him coming in to set up Papelbon. It will be interesting to see how Tito manages Okie. Masterson has clearly shown that he’s can be the set up guy for this team for a long time. Okie put up very similar numbers this year as he did last year. In fact they were nearly identical. With the exception of one of his three WS appearances Okie was pretty lock down in last season playoffs.

With Masterson establishing himself as a very strong setup man that allows Tito more flexibility with the rest of the bullpen. If you get six innings out of your starters then you have to be confident with the back end of your bullpen in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.

*all stats are courtesty of baseball-reference.com

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Why I'm glad the Red Sox retired Johnny Pesky's number

Settle down. The Red Sox aren’t cheapening the meaning of retired numbers by putting number 6 on the right field façade. I couldn’t be happier that they are looking the other way with their rules for retired numbers on this one.

Was Pesky a great player. No, not really. He was a pretty good player. He made one all-star team, was in the top five in MVP voting a couple of times, led the league in hits a bunch of times and rarely ever struck out. Actually he’d fit the profile of what the Sox look for now pretty well.

He wasn’t a great player and he won’t be in the Hall of Fame but sometimes it’s about more than just stats when it comes to things like this. Pesky deserves to have his number retired because he’s more than just a former player/coach/broadcaster and current mascot. His 57 years of service have made him a part of Red Sox lore.

Johnny Pesky is just as much a part of the Red Sox and Fenway Park as his right field foul pole or any of the other players represented by the five (six counting Jackie Robinson) numbers lofting over the grandstand. That’s what this is about.

The current ownership has done an incredible job of getting things right since they took over in 2002. Of course it helps that the team has won a pair of World Series championships too, but making the decisions that they’ve made has been a key to the success of the franchise.

In 1999 Dan Duquette called Fenway Park economically obsolete and at that time seemingly everyone was pushing for a new stadium. When the current ownership took over they decided to go with upgrades to Fenway instead, I’d say it worked out pretty well. Fenway is literally an American cathedral and I for one can’t wait for the 100th birthday celebration in 2012.

Back to the point I was trying to make. Pesky is as much a part of the history of the franchise as anything else. Have you ever taken anyone to their first game at Fenway? What do you point out to them? The monster, CITGO sign, Pesky’s pole, the Yawkey morse code on the monster, the stories behind the other retired numbers and a host of other anecdotes about America’s favorite ballpark.

The team isn’t just honoring longevity, I agree it wouldn’t be worth it just to honor someone for being with the club for the better part of six decades, but Pesky is more than a guy that’s been around forever. He’s a symbol. And if you were one of the thousands of people to take in the Dark Knight at the Jordan’s IMAX you know that symbols invoke something in people.

Pesky is a symbol to the fans. A symbol of the storied teams of yesteryear, he’s a park of the folklore of the Red Sox. Maybe he was just the right guy in the right place at the right time but he tells a story and now the ‘6’ on the right field façade will continue to tell that story to fans for another six decades.

I get the disagreements. I understand people thinking its hokey to retire his number but like I said its about more than numbers in some cases. I don’t really get how anyone could be anything more than thrilled for the guy. I mean he’s almost 90 years old, he’s given his entire life to the Red Sox, and he’s Mr. Red Sox.

There are certainly some other players that are more deserving than Pesky in the traditional sense, Jim Rice, Tony C, Dom DiMaggio to name a few, but his story is unique.

This ownership has done well catering to the fans with the upgrades they’ve made to the park, they’ve made people say ‘to hell with a new stadium, we’ve got Fenway and that’s the way I like it’. Find a Yankees fan next year and ask them which stadium they like better old Yankee stadium or new. Sure the new one might be nicer, cleaner, have more luxury suites and better seats but deep down they’ll wish they never built the thing.

Johnny Pesky is a fixture of Fenway Park, so is his pole (snicker…) and now, rightfully so, is his number 6. Sitting next to his friends Bobby Doerr and Teddy Ballgame and the other Red Sox legends he reminds us of.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Iron Teams Relay 2008

Plum TV Followed us and Hatch and Burns in the 2008 Nantucket Iron Teams relay...even though we got second the video is still pretty cool.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Paintball

My first attempt at a paintball video

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Day (or five) late thoughts on the Bartolo Colon signing

As you know the Sox signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal this week. I’m not going to lie to you I think it was a pretty smart move by Theo. Granted he’s not the Cy Young winning pitcher he was in 2005 but if he can stay healthy he will most definitely help eat some innings while Schilling rehabs or Buchholz gets ready for a season in the majors.

That’s the great thing about the signing, as Theo said it’s a low-risk high potential reward situation. According to ESPN If Colon is added to the Red Sox 40-man roster, “he would get a $1.2 million, one-year contract and have the chance to earn performance and roster bonuses.”

What is the worst that could happen? If he doesn’t pan out it’s no big deal for the Sox but if he can get back into game shape and stay healthy the best case scenario is you end up with a proven major league starter in your fourth or fifth starter spot for 1.2+ million. If Colon wins 8-10 games and keeps his ERA under five he’d be exactly what Schilling was last year (9-8, 4.76 ERA).

I’m not saying that Colon is automatically going to turn things around and be an ace again but he doesn’t have to be an ace. Really a success for Colon, in my mind would be if he could be a 4 or 5 starter.

I’m assuming the Sox top three starters are going to be Beckett, Dice-K and Jon Lester. Yes after his World Series performance and inspiring comeback from lymphoma I think Lester is ready for the big time. Then you’ve got Wake (who could certainly be an injury risk), Buchholz (who will be in the majors this year but he’s on an innings limit again so I wonder whether or not he’ll start the season in a starter’s role) then hopefully Colon.

The Red Sox also have Kyle Snyder and Julian Tavarez who can make starts.
I’m of the “you can never have enough pitching” and “when you think you have pitching, you don’t” schools of thought. Which is why I think the Colon signing was such a good idea for the Red Sox.

By no means am I saying that by adding Bartolo Colon the Red Sox have the best rotation or anything. I do think that they have a solid rotation that is built for both the long grind of a 162 game season and a playoff run. Adding Bartolo Colon does end up pitching as well as or better than what we all expected from Schilling that would be a major plus for the team. Especially considering how uneasy some fans seemed to feel when the Schilling news came out.

Assuming Colon can get healthy I don’t think there is any reason why he can’t fall somewhere between the ’07 Curt Schilling and the ’07 Dice-K.

That would be somewhere between 9-8 with a 4.76 ERA and 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA. After all he’s a guy that’s averaged a 16-10 record with a 4.10 ERA in 11 major league seasons. 15 wins is definitely a high water mark. I wouldn’t expect that out of him but if he stays healthy I can definitely see 7-10 wins and a 5ish ERA.

Of course this all changes if he can’t get healthy, or if Buchholz starts the season in the rotation and kills it for the entire year.

Either way according to the Bradford Files it looks like we’ll get out first look at Colon on March 9th.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Spring Training is here

I’m almost over the debacle in the desert. I was able to watch the end of the game on NFL Network and I felt fine, so I think I’m ready to move on. And that’s a good thing because pitchers and catchers have officially reported to Spring Training.

Other than (enter your favorite team’s name here) are world champions! Is there any better statement in sports than pitchers and catchers report today? Ok there are probably other statements that are better but few evoke the same feeling of joy and rebirth as the day that the sports calendar turns over and it’s time for baseball to begin again.

With pitchers already working out and position players starting to show up let’s take a look at a one of the big topics early in spring training.

Jacoby & Coco – The centerfield situation is probably the topic that will be the most talked about during spring training this season. I know Schilling’s shoulder is a big deal, but I know a lot of fans are more interested in what the team will do with Ellsbury and what will become of Coco Crisp.

While it wouldn’t be the worst thing to have both Jacoby and Coco on the team I can’t imagine Coco will want to sit on the bench (which he confirmed today) and in my opinion he shouldn’t have to. I’m not saying that he should start in Boston, over Ellsbury because I think the kid has to play. He showed that he can get it done when the pressure is on last year and that is worth something.

Granted he only had 116 at bats and pitchers and managers will make adjustments and find some holes he’s still got the tools to be the Sox centerfielder for a while. Not only does he seem to be physically up to the challenge but he’s also given every indication of mental strength and will the 2007 Rookie of the Year Dustin Pedroia in the same locker room he will have a great guy to look up to when he inevitably goes through a slump.

It’s not fair to dismiss Coco because he’s certainly played phenomenal defense in center and I truly believe that if he didn’t hurt his wrist in the first few weeks of the 2006 season things would be a lot different than they are right now.

With that said, I think Coco is absolutely a starting centerfielder somewhere and the Sox really shouldn’t settle for 75 cents on the dollar in a trade. Trading him however could be a good way to find some pitching help in Schilling’s absence.

After reading this – Damon Nearly out of Baseball – from the FanHouse today I couldn’t help but smile about our present centerfield situation. I’m going to lie I am 100% ready to forget Johnny Damon ever existed in Boston with Jacoby waiting in the wings.

Extra bases – I f’n love firejoemorgan – not only to I agree with the basic premise of the site but this is one of the best things I’ve ever read. (This is what we’re up against)

The return of the baseball season also means the return of The Chili Guy on WBCN. This year I will find that SOB and shake his hand.

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Hello Mr. Mayor

Welcome aboard Sean Casey.

The Red Sox signed Sean Casey to a one year $700,000 -deal to back up gold glove first baseman Kevin Youkilis. Not a bad move at all in my opinion. Adding Casey, whose a decent left handed bat with a pretty good glove will definitely let the team rest Youk and Mike Lowell a little bit more than last year.

He’s a solid back up because he fits the model that the Red Sox have been going after lately – his batting average is right around .300 but he’s got good OBP numbers and he doesn’t strike out a lot.

He can really be a big help with letting Youk rest a little bit. The guy is so intense all the time and he is a perfectionist. Sometimes his intensity hurts him a little bit when he goes into slumps which are inevitable in a 162 game season. Then again his intense competitiveness probably helps him break out of those slumps too.

Sean Casey also a good club house guy, I’m pretty sure we was voted the leagues friendliest player and his nickname is “the Mayor”. You can never have enough good club house guys on the bench.

I know the Super Bowl is hours away but I can’t help being really, really excited for another baseball season. Especially since the Sox hung on to Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz.