Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts

Friday, July 17, 2009

Should The Red Sox Trade for Roy Halladay?

Doc Halladay has become the second hottest topic in sports, next to Brett Favre and the Sox are allegedly in the running for his services. Of course reports were similar during the winter when they were supposedly front runners for Mark Texieria but we all know how that worked out.

The questions facing most contending teams as the deadline approaches are; do we leverage the future for a marquee player or are we good enough win without making any moves.

For the sake of argument let’s assume that the Jays would be looking for something along the lines of Buchholz and Lowrie in a trade with the Sox.

It all comes down to your view on prospects. Do you trade them away for a proven player or do you hold on to them and continue develop your team for the future.

I’m never against trading prospect for a proven player. Look at how the Hanley Ramirez deal worked out. Sure we lost an all star but we gained an ace and Cy Young-caliber pitcher and possibly one of the most underrated players in the bigs. Not a bad deal if you ask me.

One of the major differences here however is the age factor. Josh Beckett was 25 when the sox dealt for him Roy Halladay is 32. It’s one thing to trade away an up-and-coming player for a guy about to enter his prime but you certainly have to consider the fact that you’d likely be trading away a 24-year-old starter.

With that said Roy Halladay is a beast and he likely has plenty of pitching still to do in his career, so you really can’t be all that concerned with his age.

Another part of the dilemma is you’re trading a short stop. That’s a position the Red Sox have fumbled over since trading Nomar in 2004. Sure they’ve handled it well on the field but it hasn’t exactly been a stable position since #5.

Yet another hurdle is the fact that you’re trading within the division. If you view Buchholz as a guy with Lester-like potential do you trade him within the division? At the same rate, do the Blue Jay get better by trading their best player to one of the best teams in the division.

I know we as Red Sox fans like to pretend that the Sox don’t spend outlandish amounts of money on players, in reality they do. There is definitely a difference between the Yankees and Mets but let’s be honest…the Twins they are not.

The point of that rant is this. Roy Halladay is going to be a Free Agent in 2010. I have faith that the Red Sox would try to lock him up to a long-term deal after a trade but if a deal doesn’t get done you traded two of your top prospects for two years of Halladay.

Two years of Halladay might be a lot better than 10 years of Buch and Jeddy though so that’s why a situation like this is so difficult. As fans it’s easy to say one way or the other what the team should do. Most fans like to say they’d rather win now then focus on the future.

The crux of this argument is that there’s no guarantee that your prospects are going to work out the way you hope they will. Sure Han-Ram turned out to be an All-Star but do the Red Sox win a World Series without Beckett and Lowell? Doubtful.

At this point Halladay is 10-3 with the Jays. Assuming he stays healthy you know he’s going to give you something like seven to 10 more wins with an ERA around 3.50. Then you’re looking at something like 17-8 for the next season, but that’s kind of getting ahead of ourselves.

Can you get similar numbers out of a combination of Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Dice-K? Because if you can then I don’t think it’s necessary to trade Buchholz, Lowrie and potentially more prospects for Halladay.

This is all similar is some ways to when the Twins were listening to offers for Johan Santana. Reports were calling for a potential Ellsbury-Lester deal. Knowing what you know now, if you could go back and make that deal would you? I certainly wouldn’t.

When all is said and done I think some team will put together an attractive enough package to pick up Halladay but I don’t think that team is going to be the Red Sox. Over the last few years the Red Sox have managed the trade deadline very well.

I think not making this deal will make prove to be the right call for the Red Sox. Granted I have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about, what I’m saying is that the Red Sox should hang on to Buchholz, Lowrie, Bowden et al. It’s not that I think they are all going to be studs. But they are chips that could be used in a future deal that would better suit the Sox.

Of course if Buchholz blows up tonight and gives up 10 runs in two innings then goes on to have a 8.50 ERA over the next week then all bets might be off.

Due to my new zip code I’m going to say the Phillies make a move to pick up Halladay and then run away with the NL East, because the Mets are not playing well.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Covering the Bases

Where I cover the bases of the four major Boston sports teams…sorry Blazers maybe next time

I think I have to lead with the Celtics. I know the Sox are playing the Yankees right now but coming off the Bulls series and then that thing last night against the Magic it’s gotta be the green. After watching the first ever eight game first round series I think one thing has become abundantly clear. The Celtics have a tough time matching up against teams with a bunch of young lottery type guys i.e. the Hawks and the Bulls.

The pure athleticism of those teams give the C’s fits but there’s an advantage to having a mix of young guys and savvy vets and that has shown to be true in the Celtics last two first round series. That’s the only explanation I have for the fact that for some reason the C’s don’t seem to realize they are playing a game until the fourth quarter. Don’t get me wrong I’m glad they’re a good fourth quarter team but it makes it a lot harder to win when you you’re digging yourself out of a giant hole every game.

By the way for everyone that’s saying the Celtics can’t survive all these overtime games and long series…they haven’t been playing the first 35-40 minutes. They’re just going through the motions and then when the fourth quarter rolls around they decide to stop messing around, which has led to overtime games and gut-wrenching final minutes. But damn it’s fun to watch.

Have you noticed how a playoff series can really make you hate a player on the opposing team? I mean normally I don’t like the players on the other team but during the playoffs I’m wishing all the bad things in the world will happen to Brad Miller and no one else. I don’t really have anything against the guy, I’m sure Bulls fans feel the same way about Big Baby.

It’s actually kind of funny. I didn’t hate Derek Rose or Ben Gordon, nor do I hate Dwight Howard, but Joachim Noah, Brad Miller and Turkowlu…f them. It’s always the guys that are slappies that you hate. Bulls fans probably don’t hate Rondo but they probably despise Eddie House, Big Baby and of course Scal. With that said I’m sure Bulls fans do hate Pierce because for whatever reason everyone hates Pierce. Ok maybe they hate Rondo too.

As far as this series against the Magic goes I think it’s going to be a long series but the Celtics are going to win. The Magic aren’t quite ready yet. They’re good, very good but they make too many fatal mistakes that a team like the Celtics feed off of…like jacking threes when they are up by double digits when they should be pounding the ball inside where the Celtics are thin in numbers.

Let’s be honest the LeBron-a-liers are coming out of the east. It’s been made clear that it’s going to be a LeBron-Kobe final but in order for LeBron to be crowned king, lord and savior doesn’t he have to play the team that kept him from winning last year? Don’t you think he wants to be the one to knock the Celtics out? I mean if you were LeBron wouldn’t you want to beat the Celtics on their home court so you can stare down a seething KG? I know that’s how I’d want it to go down if I were him.

I read a post on Bill Simmons twitter and it said something to the effect of ‘don’t you except to see Lebron sitting courtside for game 7 (C’s-Bulls) in a suit like Clubber Lang in Rocky III’. After I read that I couldn’t get it out of my head. I was 100% sure he was going to do it. Even as a Celtics fan I thinkthat would have been righteous.

The Red Sox have been playing pretty well as of late and one thing I’ve learned from being a Sox fan it’s April and May really aren’t all that important. As long as you play .500 ball you’re ok. Look at all the teams that have gotten off to great starts and faltered down the stretch. Does anyone thin that the Blue Jays are going to be leading the division in August? No offense to the Blue Jays, they will certainly have something to say about who will win the division I just don’t think it’s going to be them.

If there is one glaring issue with the Sox it’s Big Papi. It’s no secret people are starting to worry about him. I’m still confident in him. He’s coming off the injury and it’s only early May. Would you rather see him struggle to get things going but come on strong later in the season or have him come out gangbusters like A-Rod and hit 15 dingers in April and May then fold like origami when it counts? That’s what I thought.

All is going to be ok anyway, we’ve got Youk, Petey and everybody’s favorite new Sox Jason Bay. I love that guy. Best gift we’ve ever received from Canada. Honestly the lone bad part of my trip home for the Patriot’s Day game was the fact that they didn’t have a Jason Bay version of the t-shirt I wanted. Not that it matters though because it would only be house wear, I got some nasty looks when wearing my Celtics hat in Philly the other day.

One of the things that has really been bothering me thought is this…where is Jerry Remy??? This is a serious issue not having NESN and having to watch/listen to the games via MLB Network…plus no K-Tap! AH!

Side note: Eck has been a nice fill in tonight but easy with the Joba taking his glove off thing.

Everyone seems to love the Patriots draft and I, as always, don’t question anything Belichick does. Call me a homer, that’s fine but until he does something that doesn’t work well I’m not listening to your negativity. The guy knows what he’s doing and even when the Pats do miss on a draft pick it doesn’t kill them like other teams.

Exhibit A – the NYJ – Vernon Gholston & Mark Sanchez sure they’ve got potential but if they turn out to be busts those will seriously hinder the Jets ability to right the ship. Whereas in New England’s case if say Laurence Maroney turns out to be a bust, which I do not believe he is, the team has the ability to make do without him.

That’s why I think this year seems to be another slam dunk of a draft. They reloaded at DB with Chung and Butler got some younger guys to fill in and play as reserves on the O-line, got another big nose tackle and of course stockpiled picks for next year’s draft, when they will take Tim Tebow in the third round.

On top of all that they also cleared some cap room in the offseason and made some other financially motivated moves, which means they are planning on keeping a number of the guys who have expiring contracts after this year. They also completely overhauled the secondary by adding Bodden and Springs. Now they have two solid corners, two solid safeties in Sanders and Meriweather, who showed that after a year of learning under Belichick that he’s ready to be an impact player.

Oh yeah I almost forgot. TOM BRADY IS COMING BACK.

Now how do you like them apples?

No way I could cover the bases without talking about the Bruins. I’d just like to say a quick thank you to EA and 2k Sports, sometimes it’s amazing how much you can not only learn from playing sports games but how much it can shape your interest. For example I wanted to really pay attention to the B’s this year and I ended up buying NHL 09 and boom I love hockey again. I would not be surprised if there was a direct correlation between the years I bought hockey video games and the years I watch the most hockey. Thanks NHL 94!

Don’t you think it’s time we ‘cue the Duckboats’ (viva the Stool!) for B’s? We can’t have BU as our championship representative for hockey. It’s not right. But a B’s championship would be the perfect way to cap off the O-thousands. That’s right O-thousands, it’s not the aughts, I’m sorry we’re talking about a decade not a rifle.

Unfortunately the one of the major draw backs to living in PA now is that I can only watch the hockey games that are on Versus, which up until this past week were pretty much exclusively Red Wings game. I don’t hold it against them. I’m just saying it’s tough to have to wait for Barry Melrose to give you your highlights. From what I’ve seen I think we are going to see a very, very exciting series between the B’s and the Pen’s to see who goes on to face the Red Wings.

I really hope the Bruins can get in there and vie for a title. But regardless I think this season has definitely revitalized Boston’s hockey sprit and that’s good because Boston is a great hockey town and the winter is so much more fun whenever one is rocking the black and gold.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

And so it begins

The first Sox-Yanks game of the year and NINE DOLLAR PBR WHAT!?!

What better day to emerge from my winter blogging coma than the one that follows the first Red Sox-Yankees game…and what a game it was.

Last night’s game had everything you could want from a Friday night Sox-Yanks game. We got Lester v. Joba, with Lester looking like he’s back on track with two straight solid starts. We also got the Red Sox hitting into a frustrating number of double plays yet still coming back to win the game. Could they have found another way to hit into another double play?

As often happens the Red Sox trailed, tied the game up at 2-2, and then proceeded to cough up two runs going into the ninth trailing 4-2. Then along came Jason Bay hitting a two run homer in maybe the most ridiculous spots in the entire park off of Mo Rivera to tie it in the ninth.

There’s nothing like watching games on MLB.tv on my laptop for moments like these. Of course the internet decided to lag mid pitch, then mid flight, wait did that go out, yes, no, yes, no, YEEESSSS!

Seriously nothing like jumping around your darkened apartment at 11pm trying to do your best Papelbon fist pump impression – note to self don’t put the laptop on your lap when watching a game. I almost destroyed my laptop I jumped up so high.

Luckily I repositioned before Youk won it with a walk off no doubter. Is there any play in baseball that evokes the feeling that a no doubter does. Whether your guy hits it or it gets hit off of your guy there is no play in spots that produces such opposite reactions in fans.

It was a great all around game, and I was saying this in the top of the ninth when I figured the Sox were going to lose, but it was a classic Sox-Yanks game. The whole game you felt like there was the distinct possibility someone would throw to close to someone and the benches would clear. Every Yankee hit was followed by God I hate that SOB. Every time Texieria (fuck it I don’t care, I’m not paying attention to spelling it) came up I was hoping for one of those embarrassing strikeouts where the guy nearly falls down because he’s so far ahead of the ball. Jeter hit a ball off the hands for a single…every fucking time with that guy…

The greatest part though, aside from Youk’s walk off homer, was actually being down two going into the ninth. That’s not a nightmare scenario any more thanks to Billy Mueller. I’d still say that Mo generally has the upper hand in a save situation but I always like the Sox chances when facing him, especially when some combo of Petey, Papi, Jason Bay and/or Mike Lowell are going to be facing him. Sorry JD Drew but the pitch that you strike out on all the time is the one pitch Mo throws. Doesn’t usually bode well for you pal.

Now a cynical fan would say they’ll probably go on to lose the next two but after last night’s game I have to say I psyched for the next two games. I have a feeling this is going to be a knock down drag out three game series, especially when you look at the pitching matchups. The only thing that’s disappointing is we don’t get to see what the Sox can do against CC.

One last thing about last night, I threw on ESPN this morning and they showed the obligatory historical montage with the grainy footage of Babe Ruth in a Sox uniform then him running around the bases in that weird 1920s sort of fast forward film speed like it’s a Charlie Chaplin movie and there’s a guy off screen wearing one of those barber shop quartet outfits with the cumber bun and silly hat playing piano…of course they throw in Bucky and Boone but it’s a lot more fun to watch now that it doesn’t end with Boone anymore.

I have to think that montage plays a role in how much people hate Bostonians. Sure we’re jerks and we’ve been able enjoy three super bowls, two world series, and an NBA title in the last 10 years but after like 2006 people really started to get fed up with the Sox-Yanks hype, which was fueled with those brightly colored log things from Back to the Future III thanks to ESPN.

After this offseason with the Yankees going ape shit and committing 400 million dollars to three players, including landing Tex after it looked like his arrival in Boston would be a sure thing, I think that the rivalry has been renewed for everyone that isn’t a Sox or Yanks fan. I think plenty of people still hate both teams but they are more interested in the game because of that hate, as opposed to the past couple of years when everyone was just sick of hearing about it.

Either way I’m excited. It’s going to be a very fun season to watch with the Sox, Yanks and Rays all vying for two playoff spots. Which intern will make all those midsummer losses to the Blue Jays that much more frustrating.

A couple of other things that I wanted to mention…

Youk is batting .433 right now. I don’t think Ted’s head should be too worried but I’ve been campaigning that Youk would win a batting title for three years running and I don’t want to jinx the guy but after watching his batting average steadily climb each of his five major league seasons I’m going to say it again this year. Youk’s going to win the batting title, might not be this year, but he’s going to win one before he’s done.

Oh yeah and if you haven’t visited his beard’s twitter you probably should. It’s quite a treat. Check it out @ http://twitter.com/beardoftruth

Speaking of twitter I wonder if that would be a good way to blog more if I started a red seat twitter…probably not…I should probably just blog more and play video games less…what can I say those chainsaw zombies in Resident Evil 5 are hard to kill.

I heard this via the email chain the other day…PBRs cost nine bucks at the new Yankees stadium…WHAT! Are you kidding me…nine dollars for one PBR? That is an outrage! Where are those high life guys when we really need them? You can’t serve PBR for nine dollars unless it is like a keg, or half a keg or something like that. Honestly how many places can you name off the top of your head that sell PBR for 2 dollars or less? Ten, twenty maybe? Never mind the insane ticket prices and the disgraceful fact that Yankee stadium isn’t sold out every night something needs to be done about this nine dollar PBR business.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

If he gets in the Hall of Fame do you think his MMORPG will sell better?

I had to make a move. I’m no longer in the suburbs of Boston, but hey at least I’m out of my mom’s basement. Before I start in on the Curt Schilling argument I just wanted to thank the lord for barstoolsports.com and survivinggrady.com who are keeping in the loop with my New England Sports news now that I’m in the city of brotherly love.

With the announcement of Curt Schilling’s retirement last week came an onslaught of disscuions regarding his Hall of Fame worthiness. My vote, as usual would be yes, Curt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame.

I kind of feel like I owe it to old G38 to have his back, I mean the Sox didn’t win a World Series for 86 years, then Schilling hopped in that F-150, came to Boston and broke a ‘curse’. The whole existence-vs-non existence of the curse argument notwithstanding, the guy had the balls to declare that he had a ‘curse’ to break and he actually did it.

“No way, he faked that whole bloody sock thing and…” I’m going to have to stop you right there. He didn’t fake it ok settle down. First, I’ve seen the sock it wasn’t food coloring or ketchup or whatever other substance you’re going to tell me it was. The guy had his tendon sewn to his foot and then regulated.

The biggest anti-Schilling arguments I’ve heard have focused on his 216 career wins. Granted 216 wins over 20 years isn’t eye popping but pitchers don’t win 300 games anymore. Realistically Randy Johnson will probably be the last 300 game winner we see for a long time. And he still has to win five more games to hit that number.

Baseball always has been a numbers game, with that in mind, the only active pitchers who have more wins than Schill are Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Johnson, Jamie Moyer and Kenny Rodgers (is he still active?) however the real meat of the HoF argument for Schill is the fact that he might just be the greatest post season pitcher ever.

Schilling went 11-2 in the playoffs with an all time best 2.23 ERA. Those are some gaudy numbers. Plus he pitched in four World Series, which means that every time a Curt Schilling led team reached the playoffs then went to the World Series. See the Sox losing in the ALCS wasn’t because they didn’t have Manny it was because they didn’t have Schilling.

I don’t want to get crazy with his numbers but you need to look at other stats besides just wins. Being a Hall of Famer means you were one of the best to ever play the game, it also means you were of the best to play the game during your career. With all the changes in the game you can’t say Schilling’s not a Hall of Famer because he only won 216 game and Cy Young won 511 games or Christy Mathewson won 373 games. That doesn’t make sense.

During Schilling’s career he was one of the most dominate pitchers in the game. Six times in his career he was in the top eight in winning percentage, five times he was in the top eight in wins, he was a six time all star, he led the league in strikeouts-to-walks ratio five times and was in the top ten 11 times in 20 years. His WHIP was in the top ten 11 times, I could list about ten more categories where he ranked in the top ten for a least half of his career.

According to baseball-reference.com his career numbers put him at or above the numbers of the average HoFer in just about every category, but like a lot of guys Schilling had some enemies so he’s not a Hall of Famer in their eyes.

Why is it ok for voters to exclude a guy because he wasn’t nice to them? Whether a player was friendly to the media should have nothing to do with whether he gets into the Hall of Fame. I’m sure there are voters who don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer and that’s fine, that’s why they are voters but the reason they don’t vote him in should be based on his on the field career not his media session demeanor.

He was arguably the greatest post season pitcher of all time and that has nothing to do with whether or not he used a Carl Everett coined moniker for a curly haired sports writer, that’s all I’m saying.

This has nothing to do with his numbers or Hall of Fame worthiness but I loved how Schilling embraced fans in Boston by joining SoSH and later starting his blog. Granted he can be long winded and stubborn with his opinions but he’s not afraid to throw them out there. And speaking from a fan’s perspective it was great to read his insight on the game directly from him.

Sure his blog included a lot of ball washing from fans but he also answered questions and gave great insight on pitching and the Red Sox through both 38 Pitches and on SoSH. He even answered a question from the Red Seat about Jon Lester back when he started the site on wordpress. YAY!

It’s funny people call athletes out for not talking but then when Schilling talks…at length…about anything he gets called out for his opinion. Everyone wants to hear opinions on Bonds and Bonds, then when Schilling gives one he gets ripped for being a loud mouth. I might not agree with everything he says but I love the fact that he says it in his own way.

Final verdict – Schilling is a Hall of Famer, not next year but his post season numbers will eventually get him in. Either way I look forward to listening to him on weei in the coming years. Also, don’t worry Bert Blyleven you’ll be in there too.

A couple of quick thoughts on some other stuff…and no there is nothing about my bracket in there because…damn.

First if you haven’t listened to it yet you should go to itunes and get the Deadspin Podcast…errr…Deadcast because Drew Magary is a riot.

Second I don’t understand why Twitter is big time news all of a sudden. Who cares if Charlie Villanueva twittered during half time of a game, or if Shaq and Lance Armstrong attempt to market themselves to their fans through twitter?

Personally I think Twitter is pointless and retarded. It’s not really any different from the Facebook status update, which isn’t really any different from the old AIM away message. I know people are obsessed with celebrities and that could possibly be a sign of the apocalypse but celebrities and athletes are really the only people that should use twitter. I’m sorry regular people like you and me just don’t usually have anything interesting to twitter about.

Think about it…who gives a shit about what I am doing within the confines of 140 some odd characters? It’s bad enough I have a blog which I occasionally spout my stupid opinions about stuff. Why would anyone care if I twittered to say that I am watching March Madness, or making hamburger helper.

People care about what athletes and celebs are doing, no one cares if you are at work on a Tuesday…so is everybody else. People want to know how Lance Armstrong’s surgery went last week so he twittered…twitted…tweeted…whatever…but nobody gives a shit if you’re out to eat or cleaning the house.

If people want to use it to reach out to their fans then that’s awesome, but really it’s stupid. It’s just another outlet for people to let you know they are at the gym or quote the movie Heat.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

You Know What I Haven't Had in a While...Big League Chew

Where I opine about Jim Rice finally getting in to the Hall of Fame…

It’s been a long time coming but Jim Rice will finally be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame along with Rickey Henderson.

ESPN had a roundtable debating whether or not Jim Rice should be in the Hall of Fame and SportsCenter made mention or possibility of Rice being overrated. I’m not sure how you can be overrated if you are one of the most feared hitters of your era. To me, that doesn’t make any sense.

When it comes to halls of fame, especially the Baseball Hall of Fame there is a premium placed on numbers. If I say Cooperstown and 300, 3000, 1500 or 500 any baseball fan worth his or her weight in cracker jacks and beer knows exactly what I’m talking about. But those milestone numbers don’t necessarily define what makes a hall of famer.

Obviously it helps but being a dominant player during the time you play in certainly makes you eligible for Hall of Fame induction.

Some say that Rice lacked longevity but I’d take one of the most feared hitters for 12 seasons over a good player for 15 or 20. Rice played 16 seasons, all with the Sox and finished with 2,452 hits, 382 home runs, 1451 RBI and a .298 lifetime batting average.

Those numbers (courtesy of baseball-reference.com) are a little bit shy of some of the sure fire Hall of Fame numbers but when you figure in the fact that he finished in the top five in MVP voting six times and was an eight time all star I think he’s definitely a Hall of Famer.

Alright, he’s in now. I don’t need to try and convince anyone that he belongs there, but it’s interesting how people have this view that adding players to the hall of fame somehow cheapens the honor. If you add the wrong players then yes I can see that but I don’t see anything wrong with adding players who were the best of their time period.

The baseball hall of fame as more than just a mausoleum paying tribute to legends of a bygone age but it’s also a chronicling of baseballs journey through the ages. It’s like that giant ball at Epcot Center, Spaceship Earth, baseball is living, growing thing so how can you leave out the best players of any given era or decade?

It was long overdue for Jim Rice to get the call from Cooperstown, hopefully it won’t be a similar experience for guys like Bert Blyleven.

Okay one more quick thing about Hall of Fame voting.

The Hall of Fame voting and all voting done by media members should be immune to people with personal vendettas or gripes about players. The Hall of Fame has nothing to do with whether or not a player was nice. It’s about whether or not that player was one of the greatest to play the game.

Was it the college football AP Poll voter that said they didn’t want to be the ones to make the final determination on who is named the national champion? Is that right? I’m going to be honest that could be totally inaccurate the BCS has kind of clouded my mind but I thought I remembered hearing that.

The voting for awards and hall of fame induction shouldn’t be a popularity contest and it shouldn’t be hastily thrown together. For example, I present you with the Curious Case of Edinison Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds.

Volquez got three second place votes for NL Rookie of the Year in 2008. Funny thing is Voloquez wasn’t a rookie. Granted if you asked me during the season I probably would have thought he was a rookie too but when you are voting for Rookie of the Year you have to know who is and isn’t eligible…don’t you?

I’m not saying the human element should be taken out of the voting (we’ve seen how well that can workout) or the voters are bad people but you shouldn’t be allowed to neglect someone because you have a grudge and you should have to pay attention to what you are voting for, that’s all I’m saying.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Making Moves

where the Sox will not stand idly by and allow ESPN to crown the Yankees the 2009 AL East Champions before a pitch is thrown on Theo Epstein’s watch.

The Yankees offseason acquisitions have apparently made them the best team in baseball despite the fact that the season hasn’t started yet, the Red Sox and Rays finished ahead of them and there are still 162 games to be played.

Granted their offseason moves have them poised to regain the pole position in the division but it’s not like the Sox and Rays are the Orioles…no offense.

The Sox are making moves to try and stay in competition with the Rays and Yankees and as of yesterday they’ve signed John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli and are close to resigning Mark Kotsay.

Let’s start with Smoltz. This is a great signing for the Sox and it is going to seriously help the rotation and bullpen. It’s been rumored that Smoltz won’t be able to pitch until the end of May or beginning of June. This actually works out well for the Red Sox as Smoltz will be able to fill the role they were hoping Curt Schilling would have played last season.

The Red Sox have one of the best programs in all of baseball when it comes to rehabilitating pitchers shoulders so it’s certainly reasonable to think that Smoltz will be able to come back and be effective. His late availability works well with what Tito likes to do. He’s shown a pattern of shutting guys down for short periods of time during the season and now they’ll have John Smoltz and Tim Wakefield to move around as starters and relievers.

That gives Tito the flexibility to give Josh Beckett and Jon Lester some time during the season to heal up, it also adds an arm to the bullpen to allow Okie and co. to rest midseason.

I’d guess the Sox will likely start with Penny and Wake as the 4-5 starters with Justin Masterson in the pen. After last year Masterson proved he's a stud and the perfect 8th inning guy for the time being. Then they have Clay Buchholz to play with. If he doesn't get traded, he’ll likely start out in the minors. He needs to work out his delivery issues they tweaked it last year and that hurt as him he couldn't quite get it down.

Either way Buchholz can be used in a potential deal, for someone like Taylor Teagarden or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, or he’s another guy you can bring up and join the rotation later in the year. The same thing goes for Michael Bowden, but that’s another story for another day.

The Sox also signed the pride of Woonsocket, Rhode Island, Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli has missed a lot of time in the past three years playing in 92, 35, and 28 games due to injury and what has been diagnosed as channelopathy not a mitochondrial disorder as was previously thought.

According to the Rays blog The Heater Channelopathy involvies dysfunction of ion channels that can involve potassium, sodium, chloride and calcium. If the Baldelli and Sox medical staff can find a way to get him healthy he’ll be a terrific fourth outfielder.

Over his career Baldelli has show that he has good pop in his bat and has excellent speed. He also has the ability to play any of the three outfield positions. Because he’s from RI, Baldelli is going to be an instant fan favorite in Boston and if he can get healthy he’ll certainly be an adequate replacement for the departed Coco Crisp.

Of course just to prove that they are as smart as we hope they are the Sox are also close to re-signing Mark Kotsay to a one year deal. Again this is another good move by the Red Sox. Kotsay is certainly a good enough player to start on another team but with the way the offseason has gone it doesn’t look like there is a large market for a guy like him.

In 22 regular season games last season Kotsay hit .226 with 12 RBI (Boston Globe) but he also broke Brian Daubach’s record for most times hitting the ball wicked hahd right at people. Kotsay also became the Sox starting first basemen when Mike Lowell got hurt in the postseason, so he is definitely a valuable guy to have on the bench. The Sox can use him in the outfield as the fourth outfielder (depending on how Baldelli works out) as well as at first if Youk needs a break or incase Mike Lowell has any trouble returning from his offseason surgery. The Globe also made note that because Kotsay can can play both outfield and infield it allows Tito to carry four bench players and keep 12 pitchers, as he generally likes to.

There’s been a lot of panicking since the Sox lost the bidding war for Teixeira but I'll take Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli as alternatives. The team wanted Teixeira and I’m not going to pretend that they wouldn’t be improved with him in their lineup. But as always the Sox are making smart moves.

The battle between the Red Sox and Yankees rages on both on and off the field. Theo Epstein had a great quote in today’s Globe about the Yankees offseason moves.

“I don’t pay an awful lot of attention to them,” Epstein said. “My approach is they’re always going to win 95 to 100 games.”

And really that’s how you have to think of the Yankees. We love to see them struggle but realistically they are going to win 95 to 100 games more often than not. The Red Sox try to build their team with that in mind, knowing that in order to compete in their division they’ll need to win at least 95-100 games. Therefore you have to believe that all the moves Theo is making are designed to help the Sox field a 100 win team.

The Red Sox needed a fourth outfielder, another starter and some bullpen help. They are definitely addressing need with Penny, Smoltz, Kotsay, Baldelli and Ramon Ramierz, who a lot of people seem to be forgetting about....now we just need a catcher.

A couple of quick thoughts on other stuff going on in the wide world of sports.

Last night’s BCS National Title game lived up to the hype. The Florida Gators, Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow won a second National title and Oklahoma’s offense struggled in yet another BCS bowl game.

It was a good game and since I don’t really have any preference when it comes to college sports I have to say I was happy to see Florida win, they are an exciting team to watch both offensively and defensively. As for the Sooners, Sam Bradford is the real deal but that SEC speed is just too much to handle sometimes.
Even though this year’s BCS National Title game was pretty indicative of two teams that should have played for a championship I think it goes to show exactly why there needs to be a playoff in college football.

Really Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and USC all could have potentially taken home a national title this year. Again that is a different story for a different day.

One more thing…I just watched a Weezer video for the first time since 1998 and if I could offer a small piece of advice to River Cuomo it would be not to grow a mustache, because…yikes.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Don't Push the Panic Button Yet

Where I try to talk you off the ledge and into Gregg Zaun…

The Red Sox are still going to be in good position to challenge for the AL East title and/or the wild card. It’s just going to be a rougher road. Seriously, they’re not going to go from one of the top teams in baseball to battling in the basement with the Blue Jays because they missed out on one free agent. And a free agent that plays the same position as a guy that is coming off an MVP caliber year.

While it might not seem like the Sox are doing much this offseason because they didn’t get Mark “I let my wife pick the team I’m going to play for” Teixeira (your move Kris Benson) they have focused on addressing their needs. Teixeira was a want for the Sox, they still need a catcher but they also needed another bullpen arm, a 4-5 starter and a fourth outfielder.

The Sox got the bullpen arm they need in the Coco Crisp trade picking up 26 year old righty Ramon Ramirez. Ramirez went 3-2 with a 2.64 ERA, 70 Ks and 31 BBs in 71 2/3 innings, for the Royals, so those are pretty solid numbers especially when you consider the run support he got in KC.

The Sox also added Brad Penny, who I talked about in my last post, to be their second attempt at the Bartolo Colon experiment. Personally I think Penny for 5 million is a great deal for a guy like Penny, who should be able to bounce back well enough to fit the role the Sox have him pegged for. Honestly did you really want them to shell out big bucks for D-Lowe to come back and be the 4th starter? It’s pretty clear that Beckett, Lester and Dice-K are your 1-3, so it makes more sense for the Sox to save some money and go with Penny then try to resign Tek for two years and make a play for a guy like Taylor Teagarden.

They also got a break glass in case of emergency catcher in Josh Bard. I highly doubt he’s going to be a starter, like I said before he’s the 2009 version of Kevin Cash. I just hope he learns how to catch the knuckleball. I’m not sure another police escort Doug Mirabelli entrance will do.

Clearly the team’s most glaring need is a catcher. Ideally you’d love to see them resign Tek so they can have him groom his eventual replacement and his ideal replacement would be someone like Teagarden, unless they really think they can make a push for Joe Mauer when he becomes a free agent.

Another option the Red Sox have been reportedly exploring is bringing in Gregg Zaun. Now I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Gregg Zaun is as good a signing as CC, Burnett, Teixeira or even Pat Burrell but he is certainly a capable starter.

Zaun’s old but he’s played in the AL East for the last five seasons and his numbers really aren’t all that dissimilar from Varitek’s.

Zaun 2004-2008 w/ Toronto

Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG

2004 107 338 46 91 24 0 6 36 .269 .367 .393
2005 133 434 61 109 18 1 11 61 .251 .355 .373
2006 99 290 39 79 19 0 12 40 .272 .363 .462
2007 110 331 43 80 24 1 10 52 .242 .341 .411
2008 86 245 29 58 12 0 6 30 .237 .340 .359

Varitek 2004-2008 w/ Sox

Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG

2004 137 463 67 137 30 1 18 73 .296 .390 .482
2005 133 470 70 132 30 1 22 70 .281 .366 .489
2006 103 365 46 87 19 2 12 55 .238 .325 .400
2007 131 435 57 111 15 3 17 68 .255 .367 .421
2008 131 423 37 93 20 0 13 43 .220 .313 .359

Tek’s numbers are better, but not by as much as you would think, especially over the last two seasons. Now to be fair to Tek, who again I hope will be back, he played in way more games and had way more at bats than Zaun did. Realistically Zaun would be the perfect fit for the spot that Josh Bard is set to occupy but offensively you’d probably see similar results from Zaun and/or Varitek.

Once again though Tek’s value is more important behind the plate. The pitchers love throwing to him and it can only help the staff to have him behind the plate again. If Manny Ramirez isn’t generating much interest from teams I really can’t imagine anyone is offering all of King Midas’ silver for Varitek.

I really hope they resign Tek because I’m not sure if I can keep talking myself into Gregg Zaun.

(stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com)

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Thoughts on Brad Penny and Josh Bard

A couple weeks ago I wrote about how Theo Epstein said that some teams try to win the offseason and that it’s more important to keep both the upcoming season and the future in mind when pursuing players.

Obviously the Yankees are winning the offseason, but the Sox got things moving last week by signing Josh Bard and Brad Penny. Good moves by the Sox, granted they shipped Josh Bard to the Padres for Doug Mirabelli because he couldn’t catch the knuckleball but hey right now they’re catcherless so no worries.

In all seriousness though signing Bard is a solid move, he’s not going to be their everyday catcher. As I’ve said before I fully expect the Red Sox to resign Jason Varitek. When the Rangers traded Gerald Laird to Detroit it did a number of the market that Boras created. Signing Bard makes up for losing Kevin Cash to the Yankees and Brad Penny is exactly the kind of back end of the rotation help they need. He’s like the Bartolo Colon experiment redux.

Speaking of Cash why would he jump ship and go to the Yankees, I don’t really get that move. They started signing ever free agent so he felt it was necessary to bail. Is he going to play anymore in NY then he would have here? I hope he gets drilled in his first plate appearance.

As for Penny, the Sox took advantage of the fact that he had an injury plagued 2008 and signed him for fairly cheap, five million I believe for one year. Even if he turns out to be Wade Miller and not the solid number 4-5 starter it’s not the end of the world. People seem to be pissed that the Sox are getting worked in the offseason by the Yankees but the moves they have made this offseason make sense and are based on need rather than want.

Sure they wanted Mark Teixeira but it’s not like they are completely screwed without. And I’d rather see the Sox sign Penny for one year at five million than A.J. Burnett for five years at 82 million.

Penny had a rough 2008, he only made 17 starts and went 6-9 with a 6.27ERA but in 2007 he finished third in the NL Cy Young voting. If you look at his numbers there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to back to at least average in 2009.

Over his career Penny has averaged a shade over 200 innings a season while making 33 starts. He’s also averaged 12 wins with a 4.06 ERA. For a 4-5 starter I’d certainly take 12 wins with an ERA around four and 200 innings. Plus I don’t think Theo is done yet, it’s only January, he’s got plenty of time to bring back Tek and bring in John Smoltz.

Also depending on how the Twins proceed I think Theo is trying to set up to make a serious run at Joe Mauer when he becomes a free agent. Knowing that the Posada and Tek will both probably be dwindling or done and the Yankees will be offering a shitload of money I wouldn’t be surprised if a move like that is what Theo has in mind when he’s “keeping the future in mind”.

New Years Day is a pretty sweet day for sports. Five bowl games and the NHL Winter Classic, great way to spend the day after celebrating the demise of 2008.

2008 was a good year for the seat, banner number 17 and the Sox one win away from having a shot at going back to back. Not a bad year, not a bad year at all.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Oh Well at Least the Celtics are on Fire

Links featuring…the Yankees spending spree, say it ain’t so Tex and you just got Rondo’d.

The Yankees will pay a 26.9 million dollar Luxury tax this season. The only other team that will have to pay luxury tax this season is Detroit. Both failed to make the playoffs last season…so when will teams learn that signing as many big name free agents to huge contracts isn’t the best route to the playoffs…see Rockies, Colorado and Rays, Tampa Bay. To be fair the Sox paid 13.9 million for being over the cap a couple years ago.
(ESPN)

And that’s going to go up because unless there is some kind of Rafael Furcal thing going on here the Yankees just landed Mark Teixeira for 8 years 180 million…nice…at least that will put an end to all the Manny to the Yankees rumors. Seriously though the Yankees have committed over 400 million to three players…that is ridiculous. I think I know where to get some of that money that the automakers need. Apparently the Yankees missed the whole people that bought houses they couldn’t afford and are now defaulting and losing said houses memo. I will excited to see one of those comparison charts that espn or si run showing how many good teams you could field with the Yankees payroll.

I have to admit when I heard that the Yankees signed him I was pretty deflated I think he would have been a great signing for the Sox. He really would have helped to fill the void that is left by Manny. No matter how much we might say they don’t miss him we do and weei’s phones will be ringing off the hook in May if the team is struggling to score runs. With that said the Sox are still in good shape. They’ll get Mike Lowell back healthy, Youk won’t have to move back to third, they have the reigning MVP, top flight pitching and they don’t have 400 million invested in three guys. If I could have one Christmas wish it would be for those three signings to turn out like Carl Pavano and AJ Burnett. I really feel like we’ve got a good shot at two out of three.
(Extra Bases)

ps – I read a great comment on Deadspin today in regards to Teixeira signing with NY. It read something along the lines of ‘No way I am learning how to spell his name now’. I thought that was great.

Luckily my depression over the Teixeira signing was quickly swept away thanks to the Celtics.

The Celtics are…well you get the point. The Green captured their 19th straight win tonight cruising to a 110-91 victory over the 76ers. This is one of those times where the scheduling really works out well for the league and TV because now the C’s put their streak on the line against the Lakers in a Christmas day Finals rematch. I wonder how many storylines they’ve gone through with Kobe for Christmas day, there were at least two Shaq-Kobe games now this year we have the Celtics-Lakers rivalry renewed – Kobe is like the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, you know except he’s actually good.

That should be a monster game and speaking of monster games you know who’s playing monster games right now…yup…my guy Rajon Rondo. Rondo scored a team high 18 (tied with KG) against the 76ers and this season he’s averaging 11.3 points, 5 boards and 7.5 assists. I think it goes without saying that the Rondo trade was one of the best moves Danny Ainge has made, but maybe more important and more overlooked is the fact that while trying to bring KG and Ray Allen to Boston he refused to deal Rondo. I love this guy, it’s almost unhealthy…almost.
(Hoops World)

It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Bill Simmons and thanks (I would imagine) to his recent tiff with the WWL he’s started a Sports Guy Unplugged blog. It takes a little digging but you can find some of his old BSG posts that he put up a few months ago. I do hope he’ll write some non-espn stuff for this site. I’ve always liked most of the things he writes for Page 2 but sometimes its like Sports Guy-lite. I realize that he draws ire from a lot of people because he talks about Boston so much but you have to appreciate that he’s tried to stay true to himself as a sports fan. For some reason the whole Simmons-ESPN thing reminds me of the Cartoon Wars episode of South Park. Eventually we’ll find out that Simmons is really a group of Manatees that move balls with pop culture references, athletes, teams and point spreads across a big tank and drop them in an idea bin thus creating his column. It will all end with someone telling the head of ESPN that he has to cancel Simmons column because it’s offensive while another person tells him either it’s all ok or nothing is ok.
(Sports Guy Unplugged)

Monday, December 8, 2008

Surf's Up

Here’s a few more links and some of my semi-coherent ramblings about them. Among the links…Army’s badass new uni’s, big news on the Varitek front, J-Taz, more C’s and I BELIEVE IN HARVEY DENT!

On Saturday Army debuted the coolest f’ing uniforms I’ve ever seen. For the 109th Army-Navy game Nike decided to unveil their new style uniforms. I don’t really care about the new uniforms other than what they looked like. Army rocked digi camouflage helmets (awesome) with digi camo pants, black jerseys with camo numbers and “Duty. Honor. Country.” In camo on the back of the jersey. I know I sound a little ridiculous getting so excited about camo uniforms but you know how I feel about ‘live free or die’ Mike Timlin’s camo glove. This is about 50 times cooler. I will be looking on the internet for merchandise related to these BAMF’ing jerseys.
(Yahoo.com)

Rangers trade Laird to Tigers - I wonder if the Sox will pursue Taylor Teagarden now or if the Rangers will still be interested in moving him. It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox do with the catching situation after Tek declined arbitration. Can’t say I’m too surprised but the Tigers trading for Laird shrinks the market that Scott Boras was counting on to drive the price of Varitek up, so I think it’s more likely now that he’ll be back in Boston for another year. Which, like I’ve said before, is something that I would like to see. Tek’s impact goes beyond his .220 batting average.
(ESPN.com)

Tony Mazz brought up some interesting points on his Boston.com blog last week about the Sox signing Junici Tazawa and what it might mean for their pursuit of Mark Teixeira. Via boston.com – “Look at it this way: If and when the Red Sox sign a prominent free agent this offseason -- Mark Teixeira, anyone? -- that maneuver would require the Sox to forfeit a first-round selection in next year’s amateur draft.”
According to Mazz the Sox essentially signed the 22-year old Japanese prospect to be the draft pick they would lose in signing someone like Teixeira. If this is the case then I would expect to hear news that the Sox are making a serious run at Teixeira in the coming days at the winter meetings in Vegas. We’ll be closely monitoring this situation.
(Boston.com)

The Celts have won 12 straight and are playing some inspired basketball. The guys over at Red’s Army point out that the C’s and Lakers, who will meet on Christmas day, are a combined 37-4 and like some sort of eclipse or comet every 20 years the Celtics and Lakers rise to the top of the basketball world and battle for supremacy. Can’t wait for that game on Christmas day.
(Red's Army)

With the Dark Knight coming out tomorrow I have to recommend both Batman Year One and Batman the Long Halloween. I read both of these graphic novels over the summer while anxiously awaiting the release of the movie and they are excellent. I’ve always been a comic fan, I’m not a die hard, I’ve never been to Comic Con but I’ve probably practiced Wolverines berserker attack once or twice. Anyway, Year One was used as a guideline for Batman Begins, which is one of my favorite movies, while the Long Halloween was used as a guideline for the Dark Knight. The Long Halloween details the transformation of Harvey Dent becoming Two-Face and continues the development of Batman’s character. It’s very well written and since I’m not an intense comic fan I’d have to recommend it to anyone that enjoys a book with pictures in it.
(Amazon.com)

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

A Bunch of Random Incoherent Thoughts

I’m working on a few things but as usual I haven’t posted in a while so I figured I’d drop by and get a couple of ideas out. Not that anyone’s going to read them but hey it’s better than straight up talking to myself…or is it?

Moving on…

The 2009 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is out, which means it’s about time for me to write my obligatory “why Jim Rice should be in the Hall of Fame” post. Oh it’s coming, bigger and better for 09 too. It’s Rice’s last year to get in on the ballot before he goes to the veterans committee.

Here's the list of guys ballot

Harold Baines
Jay Bell
Bert Blyleven
David Cone
Andre Dawson
Ron Gant
Mark Grace
Rickey Henderson
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Jesse Orosco
Dave Parker
Dan Plesac
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Greg Vaughn
Mo Vaughn
Matt Williams


Let’s face it this is a great year for Rice to get in, probably his best shot, hopefully it will finally happen this year.

I’ve been working on something about Jason Varitek and whether he’ll stay or go but I’m not quite there yet. I want him to stay, I know he didn’t have a great year but I’d much rather have him stick around for another year while the team tries to develop a young catcher then let him go.

Offering him arbitration was a solid idea, if he accepts whatever deal he gets through arbitration it will be a definite win for the Sox and it gives Tek a season to get himself back on track. And if the doesn’t go with arbitration the Sox will at least get a couple of compensatory picks, with the way they’ve drafted the last few years I wouldn’t mind a couple of extra draft picks.

Overall I’d like Tek to stay but can you really blame him if he leaves? It’s probably his last chance at a somewhat sizable contract and if he hits .220 again I can see fans starting to turn on their beloved captain.

Hopefully he’ll take arbitration and both sides can have a strong 2009 season but if he goes let’s not turn on him. I think one of the reason Boston fans get so much flak from other fans around the nation is because of how fickle we can be with our support of players. Sure there are guys we stick with through thick and thin but sometimes we’re quick to change our minds.

This happens a lot when guys leave town or hold out for more money. Some players warrant our distain. Namely Johnny Damon, f him, but we have a history of selling players out for leaving. You never want to see guys bail out on your teams but be reasonable. Unless they bail for the Yankees, Jets, Steelers or Canadians then they can rot in hell for all I care.

More to come on Varitek, it’s a weird situation, especially because his agent is a super d-bag.

A couple of other quick thoughts…

Curt Schilling’s moving from 38 Pitches to weei.com – I’m liking weei’s focus on the web. They have a large fan base that listens on the web and they’ve become a powerful source for sports news and opinion in Boston, now they are making a strong bid at becoming the top source for Boston sports news on the web.

They’ve scooped up a couple of great Boston media types, like Rob Bradford, and added the always interesting musing of the blogosphere’s Luke Skywalker, Will Leitch. Smart moves by weei in my opinion.

As for Schilling…he’s always interesting, he might be kind of a windbag and I’m not a huge fan of his uber-right wingness but to each his own. The guy says what he feels, which people either love or hate. I for one think it’s really interesting to get insight from perspective of a professional athlete. Plus I’m all about taking things with a grain of salt so I think that helps me enjoy it.

There’s a ton of other stuff going on but I wanted to at least post something.

more to come…

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Red Sox Hall of Fame

Six former Red Sox players were inducted into the team’s hall of fame on Friday night. The former Sox included Mo Vaughn, Bill “Spaceman” Lee, Frank Sullivan, Mike Greenwell, Wes Ferrell and Everett Scott.

Good to hear the team is recognizing Mo Vaughn. I was pretty bummed out when he left Boston. I’m not going to lie I spent a large part of my childhood practicing his batting stance for wiffleball. And he and Nomar combined for 75 homers in 1998 and he won the MVP in 1995. Guy was pretty good until left Boston that is.

The other two guys that stood out for me were the Spaceman and Mike Greenwell. I absolutely loved Mike Greenwell when I was a kid. I had a Mike Greenwell glove and the Mike Greenwell Starting Lineup figurine when I was a kid. I loved the fact that he played left field at Fenway with the Green Monster.

The Green Monster and Mike Greenwell are probably two of the biggest reasons I am as big of a baseball fan as I am today. There is no other quirk in sports quite like the Green Monster. As a kid playing little league and RBI Baseball on Nintendo I wanted to play left at Fenway with the Monster, none of this three-foot chain length fence garbage. Thankfully I got to live out my dream playing wiffleball this summer with the Gooch in Billerica.

I doubt any of this has anything to do with the Sox inducting him to the team hall of fame. More likely it’s his .303 lifetime batting average and the fact that he averaged 93 RBI, 35 doubles and 17 homers. He was also a five time All Star and finished second in the MVP voting in 1988.

As for the Spaceman, well what can you say about the Spaceman that hasn’t already been said. I mean the guy was anti-designated hitter, smoked weed to try and combat the fumes of the city, threw the Leephus and ran for President in 1988. Are you at all surprised that he lives in on a farm in Vermont?

Bill Lee rules.

Oh yeah he and I also have the same favorite “Free Ted’s Head” t-shirt. I was about two seconds from calling this blog Free Ted’s Head by the way.

He holds the Red Sox record for most games pitched by a left-hander (321) and this summer at the age of 61 he got the win in the 103rd Midnight Sun game in Alaska pitching six innings, striking out three and giving up four earned runs.

edit - I don't agree with his feelings on Manny though...I love Manny but it was time.

*as always all stats are courtesy of Baseball-reference.com

Friday, October 31, 2008

Pedroia or Youkilis or Maybe Morneau

Ok you know I'm not picking Morneau...now that we got that out of the way.

Last year I wrote an argument for Mike Lowell as MVP knowing full well that he wasn’t going to win the award but I felt like he deserved recognition for having a great season. Well this year my insert-Red-Sox-player-name-here for MVP is back but this time it’s between two players that could (and one of them should) be named the leagues most valuable player.

To be honest I had a hard time deciding between Pedroia or Youk for MVP, so lets let their numbers and intagables slug it out and see if we can’t come up with an MVP.
Their numbers are pretty comparable, Youk had better power numbers this season but Petey led the league in more categories.

El Caballito - Dustin Pedroia

The 2007 Rookie of the Year improved in nearly every category this year and led the Red Sox back to the ALCS as one of the best hitters in all of baseball. His credentials are pretty impressive.

Petey led the AL in hits (213), doubles (54) and runs scored (118). He was also in the top five in the American League in seven other categories. He was second in batting average (.326), third in at bats (653), singles (140), runs created (123), times-on-base (270), sac files (9) and at bats per strikeout (12.6).

What the hell, for spits and whistles he was also in the top ten in four other categories. He was ninth in games played (157), seventh in extra base hits (73), his power/speed numbers were eight in the AL and he made just 474 outs, seventh in the AL.

It’s also pretty impressive that I witnessed 30,000+ people chanting ‘DON’T SUCK PEDROIA’ at a game early in the season last year and at the end of the season fans were chanting ‘MVP’. Oh yeah and he won the Rookie of the Year award last season.

Kevin Youkilis…Yooooooooook

Youk had his best season in the majors in 2008 hitting .312 while driving in 112 runs and hitting 29 homers and 43 doubles…all career highs. Youk played very well when he was moved to the clean up spot after the Manny deal and the combination of Youk and Bay proved to be a very good trade off for Manny.

Also you have to take into account the fact that Big Papi wasn’t Big Papi this year. If Papi is the hitter he usually is then I think Youk comes up with even more opportunities to drive in runs and come up with clutch hits. He’s also one of the best in the majors at making productive outs. Even when he doesn’t get on base he makes something happen. Youk tied with Pedroia for third in the AL with nine sac flies.

One of the key pieces to the Youkilis for MVP argument is the fact that he can seamlessly play two positions. That actually might tip the scales in favor of Yoooooooooook.

In 2007 Youkilis won a Gold Glove at first base making zero errors with 990 put outs and 90 assists in 135 games. He might not have been perfect this year, Youk made four errors at first in 125 games, but he also played 36 games at third base after Mike Lowell started battling injuries. He also played two games in right field. The guy gets it done, whatever the Sox need he gets it done.

Numbers are typically the linchpin of any MVP argument but Youk’s versatility has to account for something though. While the MVP award is voted on prior to the playoffs you have to think that with out his ability to play both first and third played a major role in the Sox getting to the post season.

When Youkilis moves to third you really don’t lose much defensively and it allowed the Red Sox to have Mark Kotsay or Sean Casey in the lineup. It also meant that the team didn’t have to move Jed Lowrie out of position. I’d say that Youk’s ability to play two positions definitely makes him one of the indispensable guys on the roster.

Both guys play the game the same way, which is one of the reasons fans react the way they do to those two. During the summer Tito put Pedroia in the clean up spot for a couple of games and when reporters asked him about it his attitude 'it’s about fucking time'…ahhh how can you not root for this guy.

This isn’t really a factor in the MVP race but I think it warrants mentioning. Both Pedroia and Youkilis are prime examples of the Red Sox move towards building the through the minor leagues, which is not something they were known for until very recently.

Now I’m not trying to say the Red Sox are gritty underdogs or anything like that, they’re not the Rays, I know. They do have the second or third highest payroll in the majors but they have started to build a stronger and stronger farm system under the current ownership.

Guys like Pedroia and Youkilis are prime examples of the Red Sox increased strength within the farm system. Up until recently the Red Sox would sell their prospects for big name players at the trade deadline. Youkilis was one of the first guys that started that trend for the Red Sox and it has continued with Petey, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie.

That was a little bit off topic but like I said I thought it warranted mentioning. The Sox hung onto Youk and now he’s a potential MVP and they promoted Pedroia and he responded by winning the RoY and now is in the hunt for MVP.

There is no doubt that both Youk and Pedroia had their best seasons in the majors in 2008 but it’s hard to determine which guy was more valuable to the team. Lets look at a straight up numbers comparison.

Pedroia – 157 G – 653 AB – 118 R – 213 H – 54 2b – 17 HR – 83 RBI – 20 SB – 50 BB – 52 K - .326 BA - .376 OBP

Youkilis – 145 G – 538 AB – 91 R – 168 H – 43 2b – 29 HR – 115 RBI – 3 SB - 62 BB – 108 K - .312 BA - .390 OBP

Neither guy has run away MVP numbers like A-Rod did last season but compared to the other favorite Justin Morneau they are certainly competitive. A.K.A here come the token Justin Morneau comments so I can pretend that I’m not a total homer…no worries I know I am.

Morneau – 163 G – 623 AB – 97 R – 187 H – 47 2b – 23 HR – 129 RBI – 0 SB – 76 BB – 85K - .300 BA - .376 OBP

Also in fairness to Morneau I’ll add this…He was tops in the league in games played, he played in all 163 of the Twins games, which is pretty f’n valuable, he was fifth in the AL in plate appearances (712), fifth in hits, seventh in total bases (311), fifth in doubles, second in RBI, second in sac flies (10) and first in intentional walks.

The intentional walks stat stands out because that shows how much other teams respect his abilities. He also led the league in RBI on an ok team, which again reaffirms his value.

I don’t think it would be any kind of outrage if Morneau were to win the MVP, clearly he’s got the numbers to back up the argument, but I don’t think his 2008 season was remarkably better than either Pedroia or Youkilis.

Power numbers are often the first thing that gets mentioned when you’re talking about the MVP award. Most people go straight to home runs and RBI as their first indicators of who should be MVP. There’s no doubt Youk had better power numbers than Petey but we’re not talking about a guy that only hit three homers and drove in 45 runs.

As a number two hitter Pedroia drove in 83 runs and had 17 home runs, compared to 29 from Youk and 23 from Morneau. In my humble opinion Pedroia’s all around excellence stands above everything else.

Morneau and Youk were better at driving in runs and had better power numbers but they are expected to when they hit where they do in the lineup. With Pedroia you got even more than you bargained for with the way he handled his bat hitting for both average and power, his defense and his ability to carry the team as a second year player.

I don’t think the Sox would have been nearly as good without Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau is definitely one of the best players in the Major Leagues, but in my opinion Dustin Pedroia gets the nod for MVP.

But I won’t be too upset if Youk wins it either. And after all that typing Justin Morneau will probably be the one that actually gets the award. Since there was no run away candidate, as a baseball fan, that wouldn’t be so bad either.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Playoff Diaries Volume IV: The Epilogue

1st inning – Well they gave that one away didn’t they? After watching seven games of Rays-Sox playoff baseball I think it was pretty clear that the Rays were the better team this time around. The most telling stat of all came in game seven…8 men left on base, 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position…ouch.

That was the key difference in the final game of the ALCS. While the Sox got on the board early they got their lone run from the little pony’s homer and the Rays cashed in with clutch hits from the surprisingly awake Rocco Baldelli and who else but Evan Longoria and added an insult to injury late homer by Willy Mo Aybar.

Even though I’ll admit that the Rays were the better team this year I can’t help feeling like the Sox let this one get away. They were limping along but they had managed to climb back into the series, which is really a credit to the players and manager but in the end the just didn’t have it this year.

The ending kind of reminded me of what it was like in 2005 when the Sox lost to the White Sox in the ALDS. It was kind of like ‘oh well, sucks that they lost but how much can we really complain?’

Whatever your feeling is you have to admit that the Red Sox glaring weakness during the series, fittingly proved to be their undoing. By that I mean the weakness at the end of the lineup and a catatonic Big Papi. The team certainly got a couple of key contributions from Varitek (the bomb in game six), Kotsay (some great D at first) and Cora (veteran savvy & getting himself on base when he needed to) but they seemed to keep coming up in clutch situations and weren’t able to get it done.

I know we all love Tek. He’s given us so much over the years but after he hit the homer in game 6 you had to think that was about all the offense he was going to give you. He just had nothing at the plate.

With Kotsay I kept feeling like he was do for a ball to land somewhere other than in
an opposing players glove but it never happened. He just missed that ball with the bases loaded and in every other situation he drove the ball right at someone. In fact according to baseball-reference he shattered Brian Daubach’s record for THTBRAS or Times Hitting The Ball Right At Someone. Amazingly Kotsay broke Daubers single season record in just 11 games.

As for Cora, I think you expect him to come up with something to help you out. He did, sort of, when he reached on an error in the top of the eighth but beyond that he wasn’t going to give you much at the plate. He played good defense in the field but with even if he managed to get on base the lack of production from Big Papi left him stranded.

After a season of lowly numbers we’ve come to expect little production from the bottom of the lineup but the heart breaker was watching Big Papi miss pitches that normally become souvenirs. A year ago with two on, one out and Papi representing the go ahead run at the plate you know the Red Sox are taking the lead (or at least tying the game) bringing in Papelbon for a two inning save and going to the World Series but that wrist injury just took all the life out of Big Papi.

It might not have been meant to be in 2008 but it still feels like they gave that one away. Hey at least we didn’t have to deal with instant replay because of those stupid catwalks.

2nd inning – The Rays bats were ridiculous…I don’t think I’ve ever seen an offense stay that hot against a good team for that long. Beckett was able to keep them in check and Lester pitched a great game seven they just were not going to be stopped. I don’t think I’ve ever been as afraid of a hitter as I was of Evan Longoria…maybe Jason Giambi when playing at Yankee Stadium with the short porch but Longoria was playing wiffleball with a mongo bat for seven games.

Game seven came down to one of the things I’ve mentioned a ton of times and that’s timely hitting. In the clutch the Rays were trying to hit beach balls while the Sox were seeing nothing but peas. Take a look at the Rays three runs in game seven and how they were scored.

Bottom of the fourth down 1-0 – Lester gives up a single to Iwamura, K’s Upton then erases Iwamura at second with a fielder’s choice from Carlos Pena. Now there are two outs with Pena at first and Longoria at the plate – things are looking good for the Sox, the way Lester is going you have to feel pretty good plus a double doesn’t guarantee them a run…oh no…Longoria hits a two out double and Pena hustles home beating out a good relay throw from Pedroia. All tied up at 1-1.

Bottom of the fifth tied at 1-1 after Matt Garza mowed down the big three Kotsay, Varitek and Cora – Lester gives up a lead off double to Aybar and a bleeder to Navarro (Key for the Rays here is that they didn’t make a base running error – Youk caught like 4 guys napping on the bases in the postseason) then Baldelli hits another weak single through the infield and Aybar scores to make it 2-1. Things could have been a lot worse but Lester settled down and got the next three guys to get out of the inning.

The third run was obviously just the broken-bench-at-the-end-of-Tommy-Boy ‘I could have done without that’ homer by Willy Mo Aybar. The worst part about it wasn’t that it gave the Rays an insurmountable two run lead but the fact that we had to listen to that stupid Rays home run song. Congrats on winning and everything and the Rayhawks and vajayhawks and what not but seriously that song is laaaaaaaaaaaaammmmmmmeeeeee.

Really…Feel the Heat? That is weak…it might be worse than the San Diego Super Chargers song.

If you really must know it’s called ‘feel the heat’ by Living Under Venus. I will now smash my head into the wall repeatedly.

3rd inning – At least the Sox pitching came together at the end. Whoever you are a fan of it was a great game to watch. Both pitchers where phenomenal and Matt Garza officially stole the moniker ‘Big Game’ away from James Shields with his two lights out performances.

Seriously when you lose the two games you start in the ALCS you lose the Big Game moniker…I was willing to let it slide in game one because he settled down and only gave up a couple of runs but after losing a game that could have sent your team to its first World Series ever at home against a team that was done three days before you’re not big game anymore. Big Game Matt Garza, that’s something I feel comfortable with.

It was good to see Beckett get it together in game 6 and like I said you can’t blame Lester for the game seven loss. When you strand 8 runners on base and go 0-for-6 with RISP that’s not on the pitcher that’s on the hitters.

The Sox bullpen didn’t have nearly the depth of the Rays’ but they got some clutch innings out of Okie, Masterson and Papelbon in the final three games of the series. In the past when the Red Sox have been all but finished they’ve had their pitching and hitting come together in unison to stage their rallies.

Unfortunately this year they couldn’t get in sync save for a few innings, which happened to get them to game seven. When the pitchers where rolling they hitters couldn’t get it going and when the hitters were getting it done the pitchers couldn’t hold on. Like I said it just wasn’t meant to be.

4th inning – Rays bullpen and by bullpen I really mean David Price. Not to knock the rest of their bullpen but holy shnikes David Price is going to be good. It is kind of cool/creepy that Joe Maddon calls him their new toy but he’s right. I felt like they knew they had game seven so they were like ‘lets have some fun and make them face David Price they won’t know what to do. It’s going be great!’
Would you like to know when I knew the 2008 Boston Red Sox season was officially over? I’m going to tell you anyway.

Top of the eighth, two outs, bases loaded, go ahead run on first with JD Drew at the plate. David Price replaces Chad Bradford on the mount and promptly tricks the shit out of Drew with a first pitch slider. That’s when I knew that Drew had absolutely no chance of doing anything but striking out. That was the David Price Experience, have fun with that one Phillies fans.

5th inning – I don’t like the Trop…at all. I want to be clear about this, I am in no way blaming Tropicana Field for the Red Sox losing. Nor am I in some way applying that it is unfair, I just don’t like it.

I have never been there but I don’t like it. Something about the stadium just aggravates me. For example, when watching games on TV it doesn’t feel like I’m watching a baseball game at a baseball stadium. The place feels like a hockey rink or basketball arena.

Interestingly enough the Trop was formerly the Thunderdome the home of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Construction started in 1986…was finished in 1990…and the first team to call it home was the Lightning in 1993…when a 130 million dollar stadium can’t find a tenet until it’s third year of existence, that’s probably not a great sign for the stadium.

Ok, ok, Tampa lost out to Miami and Denver for MLB expansion teams in 1993 and then got the Rays (or Devil Rays) so I guess you have to cut them some slack there.

I’ll also cut the place a little bit of slack because it’s older than I had originally thought but they dropped 70 million to renovate the place to get it ready for the Rays. Ah…what…where did that money go…I don’t think a baseball field worth of turf and a giant manta ray tank cost 70 million.

I won’t even mention the catwalks, it’s a dome, I guess that’s what you get with a dome but how boring does that place look. I can’t say too much because I’ve never been there but every picture I’ve seen makes it look like a practice facility. It looks dark and dingy.

I’m not a huge fan of domed stadiums in general and gladly retractable roof stadiums are becoming all the rage. I understand its in Florida and there are daily afternoon rainstorms so a dome makes sense but domes suck for baseball. It’s a summer time game and putting it inside takes a lot of the feel away. That’s why I don’t like the place.

One potential positive is that it was the first pro stadium to use FieldTurf…which some might think is a good thing and others might say is a bad thing. I tend to think it’s a good thing because AstroTurf was weak sauce.
I should probably try to go to a game there at some point thought. Maybe I’ll change my mind. I am, after all, making this judgment on only my observations from TV.

6th inning – Can someone please get Jacoby Ellsbury’s bat pictured on the back of milk cartons every where?

I’m concernacus about this. In 2007 he established the existence of Playoff Jacoby then in the 2008 ALCS he was MIA or the Trop is his kryptonite.
Jacoby got similar playing time in both the 2007 World Series and the 2008 ALDS and his numbers were pretty similar.

2007 WS – 4 games – 16 at bats – 4 runs – 7 hits – 4 2B – 3 RBI – .438 BA - .500 OBP
2008 DS – 4 games – 18 at bats – 2 runs – 6 hits – 3 2B – 6 RBI - .333 BA - .400 OBP

In similar action Jacoby looked like a consistent performer then in the 2008 ALCS he hit a wall.

2007 ALCS – 4 games – 14 at bats – 0 runs – 0 hits – 0 2B – 1 RBI - .063 OBP
I’m not saying Jacoby is a choke artist. I don’t think that’s it at all I just wanted to point out that he was very consistent then he had a bad series. That’s really why the Red Sox didn’t have it this year. They had too many guys that had a bad week at the same time.

It’s certainly not Jacoby’s fault. I have a feeling he’s going to have a lot more series like the first two than the last one.

7th inning – There are plenty of positives that came out of this series despite its sour ending. One of the biggest ones is Jason Bay. I could not be happier with the Jason Bay trade. The guy came up with some huge hits during the playoffs and was one of the few guys in the lineup that you felt like could get on base during all of his at bats.

The best part of the Jason Bay deal. Now we don’t have to worry about the Manny circus that this offseason. Can you imagine how aggravating that would have been? Now we can watch somebody else deal with his shenanigans now. He’s so good but so aggravating, you want to hate him but he’s so good that you love him.

His shenanigans are not cheeky and fun they are cruel and tragic…which makes them not really shenanigans at all…evil shenanigans…

While I’m still a little pissed that we had to give up Manny and Brandon Moss to get Jason Bay (I don’t could Craig Hansen as someone we gave up…more like unloaded) but I still maintain that teams should get some kind of compensation for a player tanking so they’ll be traded and the team having to give up more to get a fair trade.

All in all I am glad to have Jason Bay to root for now. We will miss Manny at times but overall we should be stoked about a full season with Jason Bay in 2009.

8th inning – I have to be honest as a sports fan I can’t be that upset. Sure it sucks that the Sox lost and we don’t get to enjoy another World Series at Fenway but how much can we really complain?

We’ve been really lucky as a fan base to have the success that Boston has had in the last decade. I can’t think of many other places that have had the run of success that the teams here have had over the last few years.

We have the defending NBA Champions getting ready to take the court again, it’s not like we’re in Philly were they’ve gone 25 years without a championship from any of their pro teams. Lets not get too douchey and entitled here.

I know everyone hates Boston fans for a million different reasons. They call us Pink hats and fairweathers and make all other forms of disparaging comments but I don’t really care how long you’ve rooted for the Red Sox to be honest. If you are rocking a pink hat great…I wish you wouldn’t buy all the tickets but I don’t really have much scratch anyway.

That’s why I can’t hate on people for rooting for the Rays. Sure a lot of them came out of the woodwork but the same thing happened here a year ago with the Celtics. No one cared about the Celtics, I got laughed at for saying I wanted to watch Celtics games as little as two years ago and now we’re painting the town green

Mound visit - It was a little bit funny seeing the Rays fans with their sad faces and their heads in their hands on TV (because really what have you been through?) but at least they showed up.

I came to this ‘I don’t really care about bandwagoners anymore’ realization last year at the Celtics opener. After watching them flounder for years and getting over excited about guys like Gerald Green and Shammond Williams I was stoked to see Garnett.

While waiting in line for an adult beverage or four I over heard a kid behind me talking in an overly loud manner about how he never had to wait in line for beers the season before. Really? I wonder if that’s because they lost a NBA record 19 games in a row (I was there for number 19 by the way) or if it was because the highlight of the season was Gerald Green winning the dunk contest by emulating Dee Brown? Had to be one of those right?

It was then and there I decided that I don’t care. I just want to enjoy the game and see my team win, or at least play well. No wonder why everyone hates us.

9th inning – As for who I’m rooting for in the World Series…to be honest I’m probably not going to watch much of it. I guess I don’t really want the Rays to win but you kind of have to root for them a little bit. If the whole unbelievable story thing weren’t over blown I’d probably root for them at least a little. I can’t really root for an AL East team thought, unless they had beaten the Yankees to go to the World Series.

Plus they already have Hulk Hogan and Nasty Knobs rooting for them.

I guess I’m rooting for the Phillies. After 25 years and no titles in any sport I have to side with that fan base. That is brutal. I also have to admire any group of fans that is so bitter they’ll boo Santa Claus…wow…When the only title you’ve seen in the last 25 years came from a fictional boxer you have my support.

Go Phillies…Why Can’t Us or in this case I guess it would be Why Can’t Yous!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Playoff Diaries Volume III

1st Inning – WOOF…that was not an enjoyable experience, at least game two was a close game, games three and four weren’t even close. The last two games it never felt like the Red Sox had a chance. I guess that’s what happens when you give up 5 runs in the first three innings of both games and your offense couldn’t hit a…well they can’t hit that’s the long and short of it.

The Lester game definitely came as the biggest shock. No one thought the Sox would lose that game at home after the way he’s pitched so far this post season. Lester has been prone to blowing up ever now and then but it wasn’t so much Lester’s fault as it was the Rays being locked in. Right now no matter who’s on the mound it feels like Longoria could go yard on any pitch. That’s the kind of dominant feeling I used to have about Papi.

In game one the Rays were the ones that looked lost at the plate and couldn’t pick up base runners but as soon as Longoria went deep in game two the dynamic of the series changed completely.

The Sox bats went limp and so did the arms of the pitching staff while BJ Upton, Longoria, and Carlos Pena turned into Murderer’s Row. On the one hand it feels like it’s over but on the other I really can’t resign myself to count them out until the final out is made. I’m not jumping off the bridge yet.

2nd Inning – Sox pitching has been woeful with the exception of Dice-K. Who would have thought Dice-K would be the best pitcher for the Sox in this series. The most telling stat for the pitchers…33 runs in the last three games. That’s not going to get it done, even if they Sox were hitting 33 runs in three games is asking a lot from your offense.

The hitters just got enough to get the win in game one thanks to an unreal performance from Dice-K and despite the loss they bailed out Beckett in game two. In game three Lester just didn’t have it, which really isn’t that big of a deal if you can tie the series up at 2-2 with a win in game four but Wake is hit or miss and last night he was miss, now all of a sudden your in a big 3-1 hole.

True they’ve come back from down 3-1 in both of their World Series wins but if the Sox pitchers can’t keep the Rays in the ballpark we’ll be mourning the 2008 Red Sox before the week is over.

3rd Inning – Sox batters…I don’t know which has been more difficult to watch, the pitchers or the non-existent offense. The most telling stat for the offense…the leadoff spot is 0-25 in this series. You’re not going to win a lot of games when the guys that are supposed to set the table for the heart of the order can’t get on base.

I was wrong about Jacoby Ellsbury, at least as far as the ALCS has gone. He was great in against the Angels but he has looked miz against the Rays, so bad he was replaced by Coco in the field and JD Drew in the leadoff spot. Jacoby needs to turn back into Playoff Jacoby in a hurry because he’s the spark.

If he gets on base you’ve got Pedroia, Papi and Youk hitting with a man on. That changes the complexion of the game. The Rays can’t pitch to those guys the same way with a man on and no one out, especially when it’s Ellsbury who is always a threat to steal.

He’s not the only one to blame though. Ortiz has just been awful, maybe he’s hurt, maybe his timing is off, or maybe they are just pitching more aggressively to him. I don’t know what it is but he needs to find his stroke because while Ellsbury is the spark the offense flows through Big Papi. If Papi gets it going the other players are going to react. If Papi hits a long ball in game five watch how things change in the Red Sox dugout.

If the Red Sox want to win this series they need to start stringing together some hits. They haven’t been able to do that therefore they aren’t putting any pressure on the Rays pitchers. When you don’t work the count and get on base with less than two outs you don’t back the pitchers into a corner.

Andy Sonnanstine can make a mistake to Kevin Cash and give up a home run when he’s got a five run lead and he’s not pitching with runners on and an escalating pitch count. The Red Sox have to make the Ray pitchers uncomfortable. Everyone’s been talking about pitchers making Manny uncomfortable in the NLCS, well in the ALCS the hitters have to make the pitchers uncomfortable by forcing them into jams and making them throw a lot of pitches.

4th Inning – The Rays batters have really been the story of the ALCS. They looked overmatched in game one but boy did they turn that around in a hurry. After being shutout in game one Evan Longoria entered the Konami code and it’s been like he’s playing wiffle ball with one of those mongo bats ever since. The guy is on fire.

Longoria is 5-for-17 with seven runs scored, six RBI, two doubles, three home runs, two walks and four strikeouts.

He’s also slugging at a .941 clip and two of his four strikeouts came in game one. If I ever had any doubts about Evan Longoria I’m sorry. You know a guy is hot when you feel like every pitch that gets thrown to him is going to end up bouncing across the Mass Pike.

Oh yeah AND IT DOESN’T EVEN LOOK LIKE HE SWINGS. Seriously, he rolls his wrists and next thing you know Chip Caray gets to do another home run call.

Not that we don’t have a good first basemen in Youk, I love Youk and if I had to pitch between the two I’d pick Youk but I really wish we could have found more at bats for Carlos Pena. Pena is another guy who is just locked in for the Rays. Pena is 5-for-15 with six runs scored, four RBI, four walks, two homers and only three strikeouts. He also has a stolen base.

You know things are not going well when Carlos Pena steals a base. Although he is a Whirlway guy so he’s got to have some wheels.

The other guy that scares all of Red Sox nation is BJ Upton. He’s like Pena and Longoria where every time he swings I feel like I’m going to throw up. The Rays just look so much better in every aspect of their at bats.

They look like they have better bat speed, a better feel for the strike zone and they are really driving the ball. Every time some one gets on base in front of these guys it’s like an automatic run because of how well they are stroking the ball.

Continuing with the stat trend…Upton is 5-for-16 with five runs scored, six RBI, two homers, three walks and five strikeouts. Plus he’s playing stellar defense in centerfield. Compare those three with heart of the Red Sox order and it’s no wonder the Rays are leading 3-1.

Oh yeah and Carl Crawford woke up in game four, going 5-for-5, that’s not a good sign for the Red Sox.

5th Inning – The Rays pitching staff has easily out dueled the Sox. Even though Dice-K won game one it’s not like it wasn’t close. James Shields still held the Sox to just two runs, which he scattered over seven and a third.

The only pitcher the Red Sox have been able to touch is Scott Kazmir, who luckily is starting game five, which could give the Sox the break they need to get back into this series.

Unfortunately the way Josh Beckett has pitched and the way the Rays bullpen has locked down the Red Sox I’m not sure if we’ll get a chance to see what Jon Lester could do in a game seven.

Here’s why…if the Red Sox can win game five they’d see James Shields in game six and Matt Garza in game seven.

Shields – (0-1) – 7.1 innings – 6 hits – 2 runs – 2 ER – 2 BB – 6 K – 2.45 ERA
Garza - (1-0) – 6 innings – 6 hits – 1 run – 1 ER – 3 BB – 5 K – 1.50 ERA

Not promising for the Sox who would counter with Beckett and Lester.

Beckett – (0-0) – 4.1 innings – 9 hits – 8 runs – 8 ER – 1 BB – 5 K – 16.62 ERA
Lester – (0-1) – 5.2 innings – 8 hits – 5 runs – 4 ER – 2 BB – 7 K – 6.35 ERA

I guess I can understand why Joe Maddon would move Kazmir to get those matchups in potential games six and seven but like I said before I think the Lester game was an aberration, so I don’t agree with that move if that’s the logic. You can never give the Red Sox any room to breathe after all they’ve shown what they can do in these situations.

Unfortunately the Rays bullpen has also been much better than the Red Sox. The Sox pen has shown some bright spots but overall I think the Rays have been much, much better out of the bullpen.

6th Inning – The loss of Mike Lowell is really showing in the ALCS. Compare his numbers last year to Mark Kotsay’s numbers this year.

Lowell – 9-for-27 – 3 runs – 8 RBI – 1 HR – 2 2B – 2 BB – 3K - .333 BA - .375 OBP
Kotsay – 4-for-17 – 0 runs – 0 RBI – 0 HR – 2 2B – 0 BB – 2K - .235 BA - .235 OBP

It’s not that I don’t like Mark Kotsay. I think he’s a good player, he’s definitely been a good utility guy during this playoff run and the Sox have shown that you need a guy like that to win a World Series (see Roberts, Dave and Hinske, Eric) but Lowell clearly brings a lot more to the table offensively.

Youk makes the transition to third pretty seamlessly and he’s shown that with two very heads up plays catching guys rounding bases and Kotsay has been good at first but again Youk and Lowell at the corners gives you two gold glovers instead of one sort of out of position and the other playing something like his 10th game at first.
If the Red Sox lose this series the loss of Lowell will definitely be one of the major contributing factors. There’s no telling how the addition of Lowell’s bat effects this lineup, plus he’s played in a lot of playoff games.

7th Inning – Why this is like last year (why they’ll come back) – They have the best manager in baseball for this situation because he’s been there twice before. They have to approach it like they have in the past, one game at a time. They have a great chance to win game 5 because you have Dice-K, the guy that has looked the best starting and Scott Kazmir, the guy who has looked the worst for the Rays is starting game five.

I’m not sure why the Rays wouldn’t start James Shields. He looked good against he Sox, he gave up a couple runs early but Dice-K was better that night. Wouldn’t James Shield give you the best chance to send the team to their first ever World Series? Why would you send out the pitcher who looked the worst when all the other guys looked solid?

These are things that the Sox thrive on. They aren’t playing well right now but we’ve seen it before, what can happen when you give the Red Sox extra lives. Even though the scores looked a little bit different it feels a lot like last years ALCS where the Red Sox weren’t hitting and weren’t pitching.

In 2007 the Red Sox hitters looked lost at the plate in games two through four. They weren’t having good at bats and they weren’t getting good performances out of their clutch players. This year has been very similar, Jacoby Ellsbury is 0 for the series and playing like Coco last year, Big Papi is not hitting, Tek isn’t hitting and they’re only getting production out of a few guys at the plate and the same goes for the pitching staff.

Last year’s ALCS the bats woke up in the final three games and the pitching staff got their shit together winning 7-1, 12-2 and 11-2 with Beckett, Schilling and Dice-K pitching. Looking at that you have to figure that this is a winnable series because you have a similar pitching line up going forward.

Dice-K is the constant. He won game seven by holding the Indians to just two runs while Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youk got the offense going. Fast forward to 2008 and you’ve got Dice-K coming off a great performance on the road in game one and the hitters get a chance to face the pitcher that they had the most success against in this series.

We know now that Beckett is not the Beckett of last postseason but if the Sox offense can give him some early help I have full confidence in his ability to gut out a similar performance to the one Schilling put up last year. I’m not asking him to pitch six shutout innings but if the bats get going all he has to do is keep it close. That’s really all I ask is that they make a game of it.

That would leave Lester as your game seven starter and as I mentioned before he’s taken the place of Josh Beckett this postseason. I don’t think game three was indicative of what you’re going to get from Lester if the series goes to game seven. If that’s the case I have all the confidence in the world that Lester can step up and shut down the Rays like he did to the Angels in game four.

Unfortunately all this hinges on the Red Sox offense waking up, which doesn’t look promising. I do think the Red Sox pitching can keep games close but if the offense continues its impotence then this series is going to be over before it gets back to Tampa. The Rays are going to score runs, if the Red Sox can’t keep pace the 2008 World Series is going to start at the Trop on October 22.

The Red Sox also need some one to wake everyone up, the players, the fans everyone, just like JD Drew did last year with his grand slam.

8th Inning – Why this isn’t like last year or why they won’t come back to win. Three big reasons…No Manny, no Mike Lowell and no ’07 Beckett. I will be the first to say that I love having Jason Bay. He has been great and you could not possibly ask for more from him. With that said success with Jason Bay in the lineup relies on different things then success with Manny in the lineup did.

Manny changes the way pitchers throw to Pedroia and Big Papi and while Bay can certainly go yard he’s not the hitter that Manny is/was…taking all of that into account though I’m still happy that we got Bay and even if the Sox lose this series it was the best move for the team. Plus there’s no telling how many more runs the Rays score with Manny in left, Bay’s defense is worlds better than Manny.

With no Lowell and no ’07 Beckett the team is missing two of the key pieces to their championship run in 2007 it wouldn’t be as hard to cover up one of those losses but both…that’s an up hill battle and it might be too steep of a climb for the 2008 Sox to summit.

9th Inning – If it is over there are some positives…Jason Bay has shown he’s ready for prime time, Jed Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson are for real and there is life after Manny.
Despite the evidence I still can’t bring myself to count them out until the final out is made…Sox in 7

As always all stats are courtesy of baseball-reference.com